Friday, December 16, 2011

RBI’s new norms to hit currency speculators hard

..... “RBI’s attempt is to stabilize the rupee and reduce speculation. There would be no impact on the genuine trades from importers and exporters. This move will reduce speculation because in volatile times it is seen that traders cancel forward contracts depending on their position. But bank volumes will be hit and that will impact fee income,”...........

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Will RBI governor D Subbarao cut interest rates?

........ The only notable thing that might happen is that the RBI could signal a change from its hawkish stance to a more dovish one, which should cheer investors.But, in all likelihood, no rate cuts...........

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RBI steps in to arrest rupee depreciation

.........The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday abandoned its hands-off approach to the rupee, which on Thursday ended off an all-time low hit earlier in the day.......

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RBI seen easing tone, not rates, as economy falters

The best that investors can hope for from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday are measures to improve market liquidity and an acknowledgement that economic conditions are worsening. The RBI is not expected to draw a line in the sand to defend the rupee, which hit a record low on Thursday, and rate cuts are out of the question as inflation remains above 9 percent. Dovish talk at its mid-quarter policy review would fuel expectations that the central bank accelerates moves to begin easing monetary policy after raising interest rates 13 times since March 2010, most recently in October. However, the tumbling rupee, which hit a record low on Thursday at 54.30 before central bank intervention pulled it back, puts upward pressure on import prices and complicates inflation management task, traders said. The rupee is down more than 18 percent from its July peak. "Quite clearly, weaker rupee is creating its own damage on the inflation front and on growth, (which) keeps the central bank that much further away from easing rates," said Shubhada Rao, economist at Yes Bank in Mumbai.Hopes that a worsening growth outlook might push forward the central bank's move to begin easing monetary policy have run up against the uncertainty caused by the plunge in the rupee, which has caught policymakers off-guard. The inflation picture, meanwhile, is mixed. Food inflation fell to a nearly four-year low of 4.35 percent in the year to December 3, data on Thursday showed. However, manufacturing inflation rose in November from the previous month, helping keep wholesale price index inflation above 9 percent for the 12the straight month. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, India's largest maker of utility vehicles, unveiled a price rise on Thursday. The fall in the rupee has exacerbated poor investor sentiment, with Indian stocks down nearly 23 percent this year, and the market will be looking to RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao for reassurance, even if his options are limited given the need to fund a widening current account deficit. The RBI steps in to smooth volatility but is otherwise officially agnostic about the rupee's level versus the dollar. "They will not, obviously, target a rupee level, but how do they manage the concerns emanating from a weaker rupee? That will be the question," Rao said. The central bank may also lay out more measures to ease tight market liquidity through open market operations (OMOs). In the past three weeks the RBI has injected more than 240 billion rupees into the banking system through bond buybacks. "I think he might announce the quantum of OMOs that the RBI might do until February or March," said Harish Aggarwal, a dealer with First Rand Bank in Mumbai. The RBI has kept banking system cash tight to help fight inflation and has said it is comfortable with a deficit of about 600 billion rupees. With a deficit now at about 1 trillion rupees, Aggarwal said he expects a further 300 billion-500 billion rupees in bond buybacks by March. These are troubled times for Asia's third-largest economy. Data showed on Monday that India's industrial output slumped more than 5 percent in October from a year earlier, far worse than expected and the first drop in more than two years, with capital goods output down 25.5 percent. Overall economic growth slowed to 6.9 percent in the September quarter, its weakest in two years, and some economists expect India to struggle to reach 7 percent growth in the fiscal year that ends in March 2012. The government had been targeting 9 percent earlier this year. India's central bank has been criticised for acting too late in taking the fight to inflation despite the series of rate increases since early 2010. In October, the RBI indicated its tightening may be coming to an end even though inflation remains well above its comfort zone "The central bank's burden right now remains to establish its credibility with respect to fighting inflation," said Taimur Baig, economist at Deutsche Bank in Singapore, who like most analysts expects the RBI to keep interest rates and the cash reserve ratio steady on Friday. The central bank has lifted the policy repo rate to a three-year high of 8.5 percent from 4.75 percent. That has helped to brake economic activity, as has the global downturn and poor local sentiment driven by policy gridlock in a government weakened by corruption scandals. While inflation prevents the RBI from becoming more accommodative to stimulate growth, lower-than-targeted tax receipts and a worsening fiscal outlook curtail the government's room to maneuver to prop up growth."Options for fiscal steps as well as monetary measures are increasingly limited," Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Thursday.
Reuters

Policy Review | Central bank’s focus may shift to growth

......... Much weaker growth will prompt RBI to ease monetary policy, our expectation of the sequence of easing remains first injecting liquidity through open market operations (which RBI has been doing), then cut the reserve requirement ratio of banks in January, followed by repo rate cuts in March 2012,”.....

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Growth must take centre stage now, says finance ministry

Recent slide in inflation no consolation amid exceptional shrinkage in industrial growth
Growth seems set to return as the key mantra tomorrow when the government will come out with its mid-quarter review of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy, sources said on Thursday, sensing the “underlying thinking” in the finance ministry. A senior official with the ministry said growth would “now take the centre-stage” with a cool-down in prices. “Even so, inflation still remains a matter of concern,” he told Business Standard. Only yesterday had RBI governor D Subbarao met Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. The central bank’s head was reportedly briefed about the ministry’s view on the matter. Another official said on Thursday that the administrative circles did now expect a major change in the RBI’s stance immediately. That apart, the RBI governor “may make” a move in the direction tomorrow, he claimed. The review announcement comes close on the heels of news breaking that the October industrial growth registered a negative 5.1 per cent growth — the lowest figure in more than two years. This has raised serious concerns across the board, triggering fears of a re-run of the gloomy economic scenario after December 2008, when a global financial crisis led to contraction in industrial production for seven months in a row. Further, economic growth fell to nine-quarter low of 6.9 per cent in the second quarter of this fiscal. With 7.7 per cent growth in the first quarter, this has delivered 7.3 per cent growth in the first half. The finance ministry hoped the second half would witness a slight recovery compared to first, so that overall growth this fiscal would be 7.5 per cent. However, in the current scenario, experts feel the growth will be below seven per cent in 2011-12. The overall inflation fell to a one-year low of 9.1 per cent in November from 9.73 per cent in October. But, inflation has been over nine per cent for a year now.Food inflation, on the other hand, has been coming down quite fast. It stood at just 4.35 per cent for the week ended December 3. Chief economic adviser Kaushik Basu pegged food inflation to fall below 3 per cent in a month’s time. Analysts say RBI’s move of raising policy rates for 13 times since March 2010 has not pulled overall inflation to below 9 per cent. Food inflation has fallen because of supply issues and base effect. As such, RBI should not increase any rate further, as it is not killing inflation but growth.
BS

Inflation would ease further: R Gopalan, Economic Affairs Secretary

........ The government today expressed hope that price situation would ease further and said moderation in food inflation will give some space to RBI to address the worrying level of economic growth.............

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Make it a two-way bet

As a regulator of the forex market, the RBI must be seen to be in control

The rupee has been falling for months, losing 17.3 per cent of its value vis-a-vis the dollar since September. Many observers have come to believe that there is little reason to suppose that the rupee will recover before as late as March next year. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), meanwhile, insists its mandate is merely to minimise volatility in the foreign exchange market, and not to defend the value of the rupee. While sensible in theory, in practice this is clearly beginning to show some flaws. A serious question needs to be raised: does this continuing precipitous decline reflect a sense taking hold in global markets that the rupee, the worst-performing currency in Asia this year, is a safe one-way bet? The rupee market is still thin, and not invulnerable to speculative action. In the presence of one-way bets, speculation can create a vicious cycle, making a falling rupee a self-fulfilling prophecy. The reason the RBI was given the mandate to manage volatility was that while the decision was taken, for the best of reasons, to allow the rupee to float, it was nevertheless known that a key purpose of regulation is to manage the impact that speculation can have on the real economy. That producers are now feeling the pinch is obvious; while net exporters, like information technology firms, are happy, an extensive array of companies with foreign-currency borrowing are being hit, as are those globalised companies that import a good deal of their inputs. No regulator should act merely to insulate market participants from the negative consequences of a business decision. But the purpose of regulation, in this case, is to ensure that markets function properly — and for financial markets, that they do not dash off uncontrolled by a concern for fundamentals. Yet, in its attitude to the rupee fall, the RBI has chosen to appear weak, a cardinal sin for a regulator. The belief is becoming universal that it could not affect or arrest a slide of significant proportions, even if it wished to; this further empowers speculators. Statements like that from the chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, C Rangarajan, indicating that the RBI is helpless, add to the damage. The point of a well-functioning financial market is that participants should never be faced with a one-way bet. There is little chance, then, of prices – in this case, the rupee exchange rate – finding their true value. The RBI stayed out of the foreign exchange market for nine months, leading participants to believe that it was incapable of intervening. Yet unless it does so occasionally, people will not be properly wary of taking positions, and insufficiently thoughtful about the positions they take. Like inflation targeting, regulating a floating currency is all about managing expectations. The RBI cannot manage expectations if it appears helpless. The game is psychological; it must be prepared to play the game well. And to play the game well, it has to show that it’s willing to play the cards it has.
BS

RBI may not hike rates as growth slows

...."The RBI should reduce interest rates to gradually reverse the impact of the 13 interest rate hikes it has undertaken over the last two years,"........

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Policy pundits clueless on inflation

.At a recent seminar on September 21, on inflation, Kaushik Basu, Chief Economic Adviser in the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), apparently agreed with the comment of Govinda Rao, (Director of NIPFP and a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council) that “the country's economic managers have not been able to fully grasp the processes underlying the persistence of high inflation.” Such a conclusion by the two senior policy makers is deeply disturbing. ..........

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Basix, Swaws seek RBI approval for debt recast by banks

..... Both Basix and Swaws want a special dispensation from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that can enable the banks to restructure loans without categorizing them as substandard assets, according to two persons familiar with the development..................

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The Great India Microfinance Credit Bureau: Questions that beg an answer…

.......... I would also like the DFIs like SIDBI, commercial banks, regulators like RBI and multi-laterals like IFC to come out and vouch safe the integrity and quality of the data being supplied to the credit bureau by Indian MFIs—in terms of data integrity, internal consistency and physical compatibility with client existence and records. Without question, they must make themselves accountable and responsible for the quality and integrity of such data, given the implications for financial inclusion and inclusive growth. ..............

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R.I.P one dollar coins

Thank you sirs, we can't afford you. Henceforth, the U.S. Mint will not produce one dollar coins bearing the images of former Presidents who have passed into the pages of history. A one dollar coin not produced is a dollar saved for the Obama Administration, which finds itself in a tough economic situation. In the face of poor demand, 1.4 billion surplus one dollar coins are stacked in the vaults of the Federal Reserve. Also, 1.6 million one dollar coins are scheduled to be minted over the next five years. The move to suspend production of one dollar coins is expected to save at least $50 million in production and storage cost. That is a huge saving in a downturn environment. For a recession-hit America, every one dollar coin is a pain on the economy, it appears.
HBL

Debit, credit card uses hit a new high

...Indians shopped for Rs 8,997 crore worth of goods and services using their credit card in October this year, compared with Rs 6,760 crore spent in October last year, an increase of 33 per cent, at a time when the number of outstanding credit cards fell to 1.76 crore in October 2011, against 1.82 crore cards in October last year, according to data available with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). ...........

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Thursday, December 15, 2011

'Banks not that transparent on loan pricing'

Chakrabarty Says Customers Must Approach Banking Ombudsman Over Rate Anomalies


NEW DELHI: RBI Deputy Governor K C Chakrabarty is known to speak his mind. In a freewheeling chat with TOI recently, he spoke on a host of issues ranging from transparency in interest rates to charges levied by banks and corporate governance issues. Excerpts:
Moody's has expressed concerns over the health of Indian banks. Do you agree with it?
We may or may not agree with them. Overall, the economy has slowed down and you cannot say that banks will not be affected adversely. We feel that banks will be able to overcome (the stress) and banks also say so. But banks will have to work hard, they must take corrective measures and they must be cautious so that they are able to withstand the pressure. The more you diversify, spread your risks, go for inclusion, you will be better off.
What should banks do?
One of the first things that they need to do is, improve the quality of management; they must improve the quality of asset management, they must control expenses, avoid unnecessary risk taking and they must see to it that they do not have unduly high exposure to sectors those are under stress. They should improve corporate governance. In terms of sectors, there is concern on power, aviation... Power and aviation are concerns. But these are all necessary vital sectors. We need more flights, more airports because the country needs them. We should collectively find out how we should deal with them. It does not mean that banks should not finance them. Banks being the provider of finance need to influence a company's decision in improving its performance. Power companies need to build efficiency - both generation and distribution costs need to come down and even transmission loss should be reduced. Banks can say that they will not provide fresh funds till power companies build in efficiencies. Wherever required, tariffs should go up. But we can't let the power sector close down.
There are comparisons between now and 2008 and there are demands for a special dispensation for loan restructuring...
This is a very controversial thing. The issue is whether we are out of 2008 crisis or if it is the same crisis? The second thing is, in 2008, the crisis started from banking sector and spread to the real sector. This time, it is a sovereign crisis that is spilling over to banks. We have to contain this spillover. If it spills over to the real sector we all will suffer. Unfortunately, central banks and governments are not in a position to provide the same kind of relief that was possible in 2008, hence need for more collective efforts.
In the past you had discussed the issue of pricing of loans and transmission of interest rate by banks...
What we are saying is, increase interest rates if the cost of funds go up. If one is saying that cost of funds has increased by one percentage point and one has increased base rates by two percentage points but average yield on advances has increased by only one percentage point. That means benefit in cost has been not passed on in an equitable manner. One may say that cost of operation has gone up, that is, inefficiency has gone up, we need to avoid that. Pricing has to be transparent and non-discriminatory. If petrol price goes up, everyone pays a higher price. This is what we want.
Do banks have the ability to do that? They say that they don't have data.
Banks cannot say this as the very meaning of having licence to do banking business is the ability to assess and price the risk. Anyhow, we are appointing a committee to examine the issue in totality.
There are also concerns about usurious charges and they have a huge interest margin. What are your comments?
I find some banks have prime lending rate of 21% and base rate is 12%. That is a huge gap. What kind of risk we are taking when we are lending to someone at 21%? If the risk is too high, don't lend to them. It does not make sense for the good borrowers to pay for that and in the process they also suffer. The second is the economy, which will suffer.
But didn't banks jack up PLRs to get customers to move to base rate, which was expected to usher in transparency?
If that was the case, everyone should have moved to base rate by now. We have no evidence on whether banks are doing it in a scientific manner. The committee will look at all these aspects and if there is a need, we will tighten the guidelines. What we are saying is that in the matter of pricing, banks are not that transparent, especially for small customers, and definitely they are not non-discriminatory.
Old customers have to pay higher rates than a new customer who walks into a branch now. Is that fair?
First, we have to conclusively prove that this is happening. If it is the case and if a customer complains, Banking Ombudsman will uphold the customer complaint and ask banks to rectify.
After a meeting with ombudsman, you had asked banks to come up with a fixed rate product. While there are products I will have to pay 15% for a fixed rate home loan, which does not make sense. What are you doing about this?
I have seen one bank offering a home loan at 11% fixed rate. We don't want to micro manage banks on pricing but in the interest of customers and in the interest of banks, there must be a fixed rate product because banks are better manager of risk than individuals. If the banks want to hedge their risk, they can go for interest rate swap, for which market exists.
Are you happy that banks are again offering loans where the rate is fixed for two years?
We have absolutely no problem with them. But if the objective is to deprive the existing customer the benefit of lower rates then we have objection. That is why we must give the customer a choice to exit free of cost.
Some banks levy very high penalty. For instance, if you go below the Rs 10,000 minimum balance to Rs 9,990, then they charge Rs 600-700. Is this fair?
All banks are not doing this. I am unable to understand the justification for Rs 10,000. Further, how can one charge him Rs 500 penalty if the balance goes to Rs 9,900? Banks must examine the charges and explain the reasonableness of these charges. But then a customer has to come to the Banking Ombudsman.

TOI

HOUSE CALL


RBI governor D Subbarao at Parliament House in New Delhi on Wednesday two days before the Policy meet


Regulations are essential for financial inclusion

With Reserve Bank of India stepping in to regulate NBFC-MFIs and a Microfinance Regulation Bill pending for enactment, industry experts discussed the role of regulators in achieving financial inclusion at the Microfinance India Summit in New Delhi today. Kate Mckee, Senior Advisor of the CGAP said that regulations clarify ambiguities and play a role in product diversification. “I do think it is very important to set a certain floor on the behaviour of markets and is important in building consumers confidence”, she said. Hassan representing the Central Bank of Bangladesh, pointed out the dichotomy in policy and regulation. “In Bangladesh, in addition to financial stability, we’ve included the role of promoting financial inclusion by strengthening payment system especially the mobile banking system. Similar to the RBI, we have certain targets of agricultural lending. And we do have targets to the SME sector as well. And several of these targets are done by commercial banks through MFIs.” Vijay Mahajan, Founder and Chairman of BASIX group, thinks that the RBI regulation is a very good step forward but it should not be the final point. He commented that, “It is the first time in the industry that a regulator has put down in writing that 26% interest rate is fine. The last time was 12%. To go from 12% to 26% is a huge leap.” P. N. Vasudevan, Managing Director of Equitas Microfinance India also remarked that the RBI regulations are much better than the AP government act. Therefore, it is more welcomed.
Microfinance Focus

Activist invokes RTI to find out truth behind a bank fraud pardoned by National Consumer Forum

RTI activist Sharad Phadke who successfully pursued a case of his failed ATM transaction which was not credited to his account for 65 days, has now taken up cudgels against bank frauds against small time loan takers. A report…............

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Loans disbursement by banks picks up

.......Currently, the year-on-year non-food credit growth is at 17.72 per cent. The banking system could face a liquidity crunch over the next fortnight due to outflows on account of advance tax payments by India Inc even as demand for credit is gathering pace. Given this scenario, if the RBI does not reduce the amount of cash that banks are required to park with it (cash reserve ratio), then banks could find themselves in a bind, said a banker........

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Banks must support land development to conserve arable lands: Nabard

..........banks have the responsibility to support land development to conserve arable lands which are being unutilised every year. But this has largely been ignored by the banks though the Reserve Bank of India classifies funding for purchase of agriculture land as priority sector lending...........

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