Threats And Opportunities Of Interest Rate Cycle Reversal

RBI cutting CRR is being looked upon as the beginning of the interest rate cycle reversal in India. Investors ought to be cautious in ducking the losses and pouncing on opportunities Unlike a few shockers in last calendar year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lived up to the expectations in terms of the monetary policy review and brought the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) down by 0.5 basis point. This has invited mixed reactions from the mutual fund industry which are largely positive and not-so-happy ones.  The positive reactions are obvious, but the industry is also considering the reduction in CRR as a mild policy measure. On the other hand, the RBI’s stance also sends a clear signal of interest rates cooling down in the future if things move as they have been in national and international economies.  The immediate impact of the RBI policy was temporary losses by debt mutual funds. The prices of the debt instruments go down when the yields go up and hence, as per the opinion of the fixed income fund managers, yields of long-term bond will come down though, there could be a temporary surge providing the much required opportunity to recover the losses by the debt mutual funds. This may mean that the temporary losses incurred by debt mutual fund investors on Tuesday may be reversed quickly.  Trading at 8.14%, 10 year bonds came down to 8.08% following the CRR cut. The benchmark 10-year yield to trade is expected to remain in the range of 8.15 to 8.30% per annum. There are fears of uncertainty in the debt markets in the short term which might hamper the investments in the debt instruments. But the investors must remain cautious as the interest rate cycle is expected to be reversed soon. The volatility always brings opportunity. Therefore, on the one hand, the investments in debt funds might look unattractive but at every interval of the reversing interest rate cycle will be laying the opportunities to park funds in the Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs) to gain from the deferring rates of interest. 

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