Hopelessly hopeful

......What were the arguments cited in favour of an interest rate? It had been contended that high interest rates had not been able to control inflationary expectations. Instead, it was argued, the high rates had effectively throttled investments. But RBI governor D. Subbarao countered this perception. “Our assessment of the current growth-inflation dynamic is that there are several factors responsible for the slowdown in activity, particularly in investment, with the role of interest rates being relatively small. Consequently, further reduction in the policy interest rate at this juncture, rather than supporting growth, could exacerbate inflationary pressures,” the RBI stated, adding, “Notwithstanding the moderation in core inflation, the persistence of overall inflation both at the wholesale and retail levels, in the face of significant growth slowdown, points to serious supply bottlenecks and sticky inflation expectations… It is relevant to assess as to what extent high interest rates are affecting economic growth. Estimates suggest that real effective bank lending interest rates, though positive, remain comparatively lower than the levels seen during the high growth phase of 2003-08. This suggests that factors other than interest rates are contributing more significantly to the growth slowdown.” To many, the RBI cocked a snook at the finance minister........

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