Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Till the RBI manages its dollar war chest effectively, its focus on inflation will not yield results

....perhaps the greatest across-the-board negative impact on growth has originated in the severe monetary brakes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has applied. The story of the 13 consecutive interest rate hikes beginning in March 2010 and ending in October 2011 is well known. Less well known is the severe restraint the RBI has applied to monetary growth. Adequate monetary growth provides the grease that oils the forward movement of a growing economy. While too much of it can make the aggregate demand run ahead of real incomes and, thus, fuel inflation, too little of it can arrest, even cripple, the forward movement.  Over the decades, the RBI has maintained a relatively steady double-digit annual growth in the monetary base, which determines the availability of credit in the economy........

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