... By far, the biggest risk for inflation and macroeconomic management is current account deficit (CAD) – not just high CAD, but high CAD amidst slowing growth and high fiscal deficit. If inflation eases more than we expect it to and if CAD moderates further, there will be more room for monetary policy easing. However, if inflation rate and CAD move along currently expected lines, then the scope for further easing will be limited. We expect CAD to be lower in the fourth quarter – it has to be significantly lower..............
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