..........Why did expectations come unhinged? Because RBI, too, till mid-2011, nearly 15 months after the inflation spike in early 2010, believed that supply constraints were the drivers of inflation and insisted on tightening policy at a glacial pace, showing none of the urgency that the 22 months of double-digit inflation over 2010-11 demanded. Add to that the government’s fiscal profligacy—it refused to withdraw the massive stimulus provided in 2008-09 despite growth flying at 8.6% and 9.3% in FY10 and FY11. With that kind of excess demand persisting for more than two years, households and firms rationally changed their beliefs, doubling their expectations about where inflation could and did reach..........
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