Falling rupee: It’s the Government, stupid

The stance that the RBI should take in its July 30 Monetary Policy Review Statement is being hotly debated. Popular opinion seems to be that with the rupee is refusing to be coaxed or coerced into behaving itself, the RBI is left with little option but resort to a tight monetary policy. However, it appears to be a case of missing the woods for the trees. Two specific issues come to mind. First, a the myopic concentration on global factors to the exclusion of the role of the Government. Second, a misplaced focus of relying on on a single instrument — short-term interest rates — to achieve multiple (and mutually conflicting) objectives, namely, growth, price stability and exchange rates. As long as these twin issues remain unresolved, the RBI may well continue with its ‘costly gamble’..........

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