Thursday, July 7, 2011

Need stability at RBI, former guvs tell PM; suggest extension for Subbarao




3G Impact
 
Three former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governors are learnt to have met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh separately and impressed upon him the need for stability at the helm of the banking regulator, suggesting that D Subbarao be given an extension. Subbarao was given a three-year tenure that ends September 4.  He is, however, eligible for a five-year term. According to government sources who did not wish to be quoted, C Rangarajan, Bimal Jalan and Subbarao’s immediate predecessor Y V Reddy have met the Prime Minister individually at different times, with institutional stability being one of the points of discussion. “There is a growing sense of a drift in the functioning of the government. Stable tenures for regulators can also help eliminate such a perception,” said a source. All the three former governors served full five-year tenures at RBI. Jalan, in fact, was at the helm for almost six years before being nominated to the Rajya Sabha. Rangarajan is the chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, and was a member of the search committee that zeroed in on Subbarao.
Indian Express

India may extend Subbarao's term as head of central bank

New Delhi: India may extend the term of central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao when it expires in September this year, Bloomberg UTV television channel reported, citing people it didn't identify. The 61-year-old former finance secretary was appointed to head the Reserve Bank of India on September 5, 2008, for a period of three years, according to the central bank's website. India's Ministry of Finance will announce the decision before Subbarao's tenure ends, Bloomberg UTV reported. Subbarao has raised interest rates ten times since the start of 2010 to tame price gains, reversing the monetary easing he presided over in 2008 and 2009 during the global financial crisis. Inflation in Asia's third-largest economy accelerated to 9.06 per cent in May, the fastest after Argentina and Russia among the Group of 20 nations. Other contenders for the top post at the Reserve Bank include Kaushik Basu, the chief economic adviser in the finance ministry, Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and R. Gopalan, secretary of economic affairs in the finance ministry, Bloomberg UTV reported. The appointment will be made by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in consultation with Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, said reports in the Indian press. Subbarao, who was an economic adviser to Singh before he became the top bureaucrat in the finance ministry, is a physics graduate from the Indian Institute of Technology.
Bloomberg

Senior moments

For the second time in a row, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has avoided the unpleasant situation of a senior official reporting to a junior one. This happened this week when H R Khan was appointed the new Deputy Governor superseding three others, V.K.Sharma, V.S.Das and G Gopalakrishna. But Khan’s portfolios were allocated in such a way that the three do not have to report to him directly. A similar situation was avoided in February, when Anand Sinha was appointed Deputy Governor, superseding V.K.Sharma. As a result of this shuffling, RBI officials have raised the question: if seniority is so sacrosanct, why doesn’t the search committee, which is headed by the governor, simply recommend the senior-most person for the job?
BS

New RBI Regional Director

Ms Uma Shankar has taken charge as regional director of Reserve Bank of India, Bangalore Office. According to RBI release, prior to this, she was the Chief General Manager of Urban Banks Department, Central office, Mumbai. Ms Shankar started her career as direct recruit grade B-officer in 1982 and held important posts in various capacities in Issue Department, Banking Department, Department of Banking Supervision, Urban Banks Department and other important departments of the bank in Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Bangalore Offices.
Business Line

Friday release for currency with new sign


A year after its invention, the rupee symbol is all set to enter the mint and leave its stamp on currency. On Friday, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee will launch a new set of coins and Rs 10 notes bearing the unique brand identity. The coins will be in denominations of 50 paisa, Rs 1, Rs.2, Rs.5, and Rs. 10.  They will flash either gold or silver colours. The Rs 10 coin will be a mix of both. The Reserve Bank will release 80 million such coins in the market every month. "The bulk of these will be 50 paisa and Rs 10 coins," Bimal Julka, director general (currency) of the finance ministry, told HT. "Our initial target is to release 6 billion new coins of different denominations." With this, India will become the second country after England to have its currency symbol printed on its notes. The Indian rupee mark is a blend of the Devanagri 'Ra' and Roman 'R'.  Up next: polymer notes. The RBI will soon start a trial run of these notes that can withstand rough handling and will tackle the problem of soiled and torn currency. Mukherjee had promised to launch the new series of coins in his budget speech in February. "The Indian rupee now has a new symbol, which has been notified for use by the central and state governments, business entities and the general public. A new series of coins carrying this symbol will be issued shortly," he had said.

Few takers for 50 paise coin in Assam dists

Jorhat, July 6: Fifty paise coins adding upto several lakhs are lying in banks that have Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chests in Upper Assam for the past seven to eight years. Banks with RBI chests receive cash directly from the RBI and distribute it to other banks. The Jorhat branch of the State Bank of India has 50 paise coins adding upto Rs 1 lakh in its chest.  Bank officials said because of a misinformation that the coins had been phased out by the RBI, people had stopped withdrawing the coins. Bank officials said none of the organisations had been able to clear the misconceptions related to the coins of 50 paise denomination.  A senior bank official here said a large number of 50 paise coins were lying in about 25 RBI chests in different branches of nationalised banks and SBI branches in the five Upper Assam districts. An SBI official said the Jorhat branch had installed a coin vending machine for the benefit of customers, but the 50 paise coins were never taken out.  The official said the stocks couldn’t be returned back to the RBI, as it was up to the RBI to decide whether the 50 paise stock could be transferred from Upper Assam to places where there was demand for it. He said it was a crime to refuse to accept a 50 paise coin.  The official said the RBI and organisations related to trade and commerce should carry out an awareness drive to inform people that the 50 paise coins were still in circulation.  The president of the Upper Assam Chamber of Commerce, O.P. Gattani, said another reason for the 50 paise coins going out of circulation was that many companies had started pricing their products in round figures. He said the organisation had been carrying out awareness drives in its newsletters, but more campaigning was required.
The Telegraph

Small change, big turnover: The coin trail math

As coins below 50p are not in use, consumers and shopkeepers are rounding off prices of products and services all the time. It would add up to a huge amount but there is no official (or unofficial) estimate of how much.....

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25-paise economist

The era of the 25-paise coin coming to an end will now mean that it is a numismatic slice of the past with fond memories for those who experienced the dual anna-paise coin system. The 25-paise coin then had the Ashoka Pillar. There was also the British anna version of Naalu (four) Anna, also known as Kal (1/4) rupee, that had the king's head. As a boy, I remember how I used get around this. The 25-paise coin was a 2.5-gram nickel coin. I converted it into Naalu Annas of 24 paise denominations to save one paisa. I saved two paise from a 50 anna paise coin by making it eight annas and four paise out of a one- rupee conversion into 16 Annas of 96 paise and so on. This was possible with the help of shops in the neighbourhood which needed change — of one to five paise. The coins so accumulated were the only source of pocket money. This episode of the economics behind the Anna-Paise exchange amused the former President, A.P.J.Abdul Kalam, when I narrated it to him.
George John, Dehradun (The Hindu)

Former RBI guv against EPFO investment in equities


Amidst a debate in the government over investment of employees' provident funds in the stock market, former RBI Governor Bimal Jalan cautioned that any such move will have to be backed by a government assurance for making up for losses, if any. "If it (PF) is invested in equity, there should be backing with government assurance that in case of any shortfall, the funds will be provided by the managers," the well-known economist told PTI. He said these funds can be invested in equity, provided "we have sufficient resources to be able to weather fluctuation of at least 10% in the stock market." Jalan's views are consistent with the stand taken by Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) that it was not in favour of investing a part of its Rs 3.5 lakh crore corpus in stocks as proposed by the Finance Ministry. "If the investment in the capital market is so good, then there should be no problem for the government to provide a guarantee regarding the safety of the workers' capital funds and a reasonable rate of return on the capital," the Labour Ministry had opined. However, the Finance Ministry had made it clear that the government cannot stand guarantee to the EPFO investment in the share market. "There is no question of government providing the sovereign guarantee to any provident fund...Government gives no guarantee of safety of returns to any provident fund," it had said. Recently Sebi Chairman UK Sinha also batted for investment of the EPFO funds into the equity market. "India is perhaps the only significant country where there is a prohibition that worker's money cannot be invested in the market.I have not seen any other market where worker's money is prohibited by regulation," he said.
BS

7th M.R.Pai Memorial Award Function

RBI puts cap on all transactions at other bank’s ATM

The central bank limits free withdrawals and balance enquiry together to five. Sixth transaction will attract Rs.9 for balance, Rs.20 for withdrawal

Are you in the habit of withdrawing small amounts every time you visit an ATM, leading to multiple visits in a month? Do you check your savings account balance every time you step into an ATM? If your answer is yes, this would add to your banking costs if you do not stick to your own bank’s ATM.  Effective 1 July, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) notification, you can check your account balance at another bank’s ATM free of cost only five times in a month. Moreover, the total number of cash withdrawals and balance enquiry transaction together should not exceed the limit of five, beyond which you will have to pay a charge. While RBI permitted cash withdrawals free of cost five times a month till now, you could check your balance as many times as you wished in another bank without paying a fee. The “free ATM access policy” first came into being on 1 April 2009, when RBI said that any number of transactions would be free. However, soon after, it put a cap on cash withdrawals.  But that has changed now. Now your total number of free transactions, including cash withdrawal and balance enquiry, can’t exceed five. Another important thing to note is the limit of five includes multiple transactions during a single visit. So if in one visit you check your balance as well as withdraw some cash, you will have only three free transactions left for the month. After you have made five transactions, the sixth will carry a charge—about Rs.9 for balance enquiry and close to Rs.20 for withdrawing cash. In future, you may have to be even more careful about the number of times you are using another bank’s ATM. Says Madanjit Singh, general manager, Punjab National Bank, “Banks are contemplating including other non-financial transactions in this overall free limit of five. This may include PIN change and mini statement, among others.”  “Though the customer was not charged anything for balance enquiry at other banks’ ATMs, the bank (with which the customer has an account) incurs a cost for the same. Hence, the apex bank may have thought of limiting the facility so that customers use the facility judiciously,” says Singh.  However, the banking regulator has not spelt out any specific reason behind the latest move.
Mint

RBI limits banks' equity investments in companies

The RBI said that banks could — through their holdings in companies — exercise control or have significant influence over them and thus, engage indirectly in activities not permitted to banks. It is, therefore, “necessary to limit such investments so as to ensure that banks do not indirectly undertake activities not permitted to them.” ....

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Reports of RBI forcing reassigning of roles baseless: StanChart

Standard Chartered Bank on Wednesday dismissed reports that claimed it was being forced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reassign the roles of some of its senior executives in India. “It has come to our notice that some malicious rumours, involving Standard Chartered and reassigning the roles of some senior people, are doing the rounds. These are also being linked to regulatory pressure on the bank to effect these changes,” the bank said in a statement signed by Neeraj Swaroop, its regional chief executive for India and south Asia. “These rumours are motivated, totally unfounded and completely baseless. There has been no such direction, either in writing or verbal, from any of the regulators," it said. The bank said the new responsibilities assigned to its senior executives were part of “planned career progression moves.” Incidentally, Swaroop is tipped to be the next chief executive of the bank's Southeast Asian operations. The new role would see him in charge of eight to ten countries, including the bank's key markets like Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore. In February, the bank had said Arup Roy, the then head of corporate banking in India, relocated to Singapore as managing director of the strategic client coverage business division for India and Africa. Peter Warbanoff, who was the chief risk officer of the bank in India, moved to Hong Kong earlier this year, while Prahlad Shantigram, the global head of mergers and acquisitions, also relocated from India to Singapore. A section of the media had earlier reported that some of these changes in the bank’s senior management were carried out following pressure from RBI. This was because the foreign lender had failed to comply with regulatory norms in some of its transactions involving the issue of debentures, the mis-selling of derivative products and the funding of Indian companies' foreign acquisitions. “All executives moving into newer roles are doing so after putting in substantially long stints in their current roles," the bank said, adding it was not unusual for several senior people to change roles in the same year. In the first half of 2008, four members of the bank’s management in India had moved out of the country to take up bigger roles. "In 2011, it is the turn of their successors to move into new and bigger roles," it said. In the last three years, the bank has seen over 160 people moving abroad to take up new positions and about a third of them were in the mid to senior management levels.
BS

Inflation’s passé; time policy wonks looked ahead

Policymakers from the finance minister to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor are in inflation-control mode. They risk losing focus on the future while looking at the past......

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A couple of policy rate hikes still possible: HDFC Bank

"What they (RBI) will do in this policy, I don't know, but one or two rate hikes are in the offing till inflation comes under control," HDFC Bank Managing Director Aditya Puri....
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‘I will be surprised if RBI raises rates again’

The country’s largest commercial bank, State Bank of India (SBI) does not expect another round of interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) when it announces its next round of policy initiatives at the end of July 2011.
“I will be totally surprised if RBI raises interest rates again. It has already raised the policy rates a number of times and now we (banks) need a break,” said SBI Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri in an interview with Deccan Herald. He was in town to launch SBI’s combo debit-cum-transit card for the Bangalore Metro. Since RBI has already raised repo rate (rate at which banks borrow money from RBI) and reverse-repo rate (rate at which RBI’s take money from the commercial banks) 10 times in the last 15 months, banks were forced to raise their lending rates steeply over the last one year. It has now reached a stage when there is a lot of resistance from the borrowers to take money at higher rates.  The SBI, in fact, has lowered its projections on credit growth rate for the financial year 2011-12 to 16-19 per cent from earlier 19-22 per cent. Asked about the credit growth in the first quarter (April-June 2011), Chaudhuri said that it is in line with the projection though the first quarter is generally a bit lean period. The impact of high rate of interest was already visible on corporate borrowing which remained stagnant for SBI in the first quarter. Credit pick up from the agricultural sector and for infrastructure projects, however, has picked up in the recent months. Though many banks have already raised their base lending rates, SBI will take a decision on the rate hike very soon, Chaudhuri said.  He is also of the view that the bank will be able to maintain its profitability in the first quarter though there is a slight decline in the net interest margins to slightly above 3 per cent against 3.15 in the first quarter, the previous year. The bank had surprised the market in May, this year when it announced a huge jump in provisions in the fourth quarter of the last financial leading to a 98 per cent drop in net profit. When asked if the cleansing operation is over, Chaudhuri said that, “There is still some pain left.” According to him the provisions for pension liability is still large and will have to be provided in chunks in the current year.  Asked if the banks should adhere to the regulator’s request to fund the microfinance institutions (MFI), Chaudhuri said, “MFIs are not banks’ liabilities. We will take our on call and provide them finance purely on merit basis.” He is of the view that if RBI does not allow MFIs to raise deposits from public fearing the credit risk, banks should not be pushed to lend them money.

Deccan Herald

Chatterjee Group to set up private bank in Bengal

Kolkata  : The Chatterjee Group (TCG) is looking at setting up a private bank in West Bengal. Talking to reporters after a meeting Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee at state Secretariat here Wednesday, TCG chairman Purnendu Chatterjee said, ‘The chief minister has encouraged us to look for new kinds of banking institutions in the state. Bengal has remained under-banked for long.’  The Group is applying with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for necessary license.  State Commerce and Industries Minister Partha Chatterjee said although the government will not have any equity participation in the bank, it will support the Group.
News One

PNB to finalise life insurance joint venture

Chennai, July 6 (IANS) Public sector Punjab National Bank (PNB) is likely to firm up its life insurance foray by this September, said a top official here Wednesday. ‘We are looking to tie with an existing life insurer, and have shortlisted companies like Aviva Life and Metlife Insurance,’ K.R. Kamath, chairman and managing director, told reporters. With public sector banks like State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Bank of India and others having a major presence in the life insurance sector leveraging their vast branch network, it is logical for PNB to look at the sector. The bank was also in talks with Bharti Axa Life. However, the Bharti group recently announced its stake sale to Reliance Industries. According to Kamath, the pressure on the net interest margin (NIM) due to upward revision in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the PNB is not looking at increasing its non interest income through loan syndication activities and others. PNB has syndication cells in New Delhi, Chenai and Mumbai and has done a business of around Rs.60 crore.
News One

High FD rates lower currency circulation

High interest rates on fixed deposits (FD) are luring investors to park their money with the banks resulting in a fall in growth of currency in circulation. Banks are witnessing a strong deposit growth of around 20 per cent compared to last year on the back of high interest rates on fixed deposits that is higher than the rate at which money is being circulated in the system. According to a report by Nomura, there has been a steady fall in the growth of currency in circulation in June compared with last year. Growth in currency in circulation has been falling steadily from its peak of 21.2 per cent year-on-year in August 2010 to a 14-month low of 15.8 per cent in June, said Nomura. “Opportunity cost of holding cash has gone down. As the deposits rates are high and attractive, investors are putting their money in FDs,” said Sonal Varma, India economist, Nomura. According to Nomura, another reason for fall in currency in circulation is the slowdown in economic activity and a moderation of asset prices which has reduced transaction demand for money. Most banks are offering 8-8.5 per cent interest on fixed deposits of one to three year maturity. The Small Industries Development Bank of India (Sidbi) has begun offering 9.8 per cent interest on FD of 12-13 months maturity, highest rate offered by any bank for the 12-month tenure. Deposit rates which had peaked to 10 per cent for one to three year maturity in end of 2008, had fallen to 6-6.5 per cent during end of 2009 and till end of 2010. Interest rates started picking up in the last quarter of 2010-11 after series of rate hikes by RBI. According to the Reserve Bank of India data, deposits for the banking system grew 18.21 per cent year-on-year in the fortnight ended June 17 to Rs 53,44,700.99 crore. Interest on bank deposits have gone up by 2.75-3 per cent across various maturities in the last one-year. P Sitaram, chief financial officer, IDBI Bank said that there has been an increase in deposits this year due to higher rates. A senior official of Bank of Baroda said, “For monetary transmission of RBI’s series of rate hikes since March 2010, banks have been forced to hike deposit rates. The rates are very attractive for retail investors. In this quarter we have witnessed a strong growth in deposits.” The sharp rise in currency in circulation last year was due to a mix of factors. High inflation, strong growth, low bank deposit rates and rising asset prices were cyclical factors driving increased public demand for cash from transaction.
Financial Chronicle

RBI to be regulator for MFIs

The government has proposed to bring all micro finance institutions (MFIs) under the ambit of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank will have the powers to formulate policies for the sector and regulate it, the finance ministry said in the draft of The Micro Finance Institutions (Development and Regulation) Bill, released on Wednesday for public comment. The earlier Bill of 2007, which has lapsed, had sought to regulate only those MFIs not under the ambit of any law. So, banks and a few categories of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) were kept outside the purview of the Bill. The revised Bill proposes to empower RBI to issue directions to MFIs on margin caps, tenure of loans, periodicity of repayment schedules, levy of processing fees, interest and life insurance premium, among others. It will also be allowed to specify the maximum annual percentage rate that can be charged by an MFI on the financial assistance granted to any client. The Malegam committee of RBI had recommended an average ‘margin cap’ of 10 per cent for MFIs having a loan portfolio of Rs 100 crore, of 12 per cent for smaller MFIs and a cap of 24 per cent for interest on individual loans. Currently, most MFIs are charging an interest rate over 24 per cent. Depending on the size of their operations and other relevant parameters, MFIs will be required to maintain the percentage of margin as may be specified by RBI from time to time. MFIs will have to convey to every borrower the annual percentage rate, comprising the annual interest rate, processing fees or any other charges or fees levied by them. The Bill says every micro lender must create reserve funds for loans and refinance to other micro-finance companies. In the sector, self-help group bank linkages account for 58 per cent of loans due, NBFCs have another 34 per cent and others such as trusts and societies account for the balance. All banks and NBFCs are regulated by RBI. There is, however, no separate category for NBFCs operating in the microfinance sector. The Bill said MFIs would not be allowed to restructure their business without prior approval of RBI. It would be mandatory for all MFIs to register with the central bank. MFIs with net owned funds of less than Rs 5 lakh wouldn’t be allowed to register. RBI, with the previous approval of the central government, will be allowed to delegate any of its powers conferred under this Act to the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development in respect of any micro finance institution or a class of micro finance institutions. The Bill also enables the Centre to constitute a Council, to be known as the Micro Finance Development Council, to advise it on formulation of policies and other measures required in the interest of orderly growth and development of the sector.
BS

RBI to regulate micro finance sector, says new Bill

NEW DELHI: The government on Wednesday released the draft Micro Financial Sector (Development and Regulation) Bill, 2011, which seeks to make it mandatory for all microfinance institutions to be registered with the Reserve Bank, making it the sector regulator.  The Bill in its earlier avtar had proposed that the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) will be the regulator of the sector. The government had introduced the Micro Financial Sector Bill in March 2007 in the Lok Sabha. However, the Bill lapsed as the term of 14 Lok Sabha expired in 2009.  The latest draft Bill proposes that a micro finance institution has to be registered with the Reserve Bank with the minimum net owned fund of Rs 5 lakh.  Besides, a Micro Finance Development Council will be set up to advise the government on formulation of policies, schemes and other measures required in the interest of orderly growth and development of the sector and micro finance institutions, to promote financial inclusion.  The council will comprise of members not below the rank of Executive Director from NABARD, National Housing Bank, RBI and SIDBI. Besides, Joint Secretaries from Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Rural Development will also be members.  It also proposes that any micro finance institution which is not a company registered under the Companies Act, 1956 and which becomes systemically important micro finance institution shall convert its institution into a company registered under the Companies Act, 1956 with or without a licence under section 25 of the Companies Act, 1956.  It should happen within six months from the date of the balance sheet which shows that it has become systematically important micro finance institution in terms of the rules prescribed by the Central government, its draft Bill said.  The RBI may pass an order directing micro finance institution to cease and desist from continuing the micro finance activities if it is found acting in manner prejudicial to the interest of its clients or depositors. The RBI would cancel the certificate of registration granted to a micro finance institution if it fails to comply with the directives or condition.

ET 

RBI to regulate the entire micro finance universe

New Delhi The draft Micro Financial Sector (Development and Regulation) Bill, 2011, seeks to make it mandatory for the Rs 20,000 crore microfinance industry to be registered with the Reserve Bank, making it the sector regulator. The Bill in its earlier avtar had proposed that the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) will be the regulator of the sector. Such entities will no longer be under the purview of laws enacted by state governments such as the recent Andhra Pradesh Act. The government had introduced the Micro Financial Sector Bill in March 2007 in the Lok Sabha. However, the Bill lapsed as the term of 14 Lok Sabha expired in 2009. The latest draft Bill proposes that a micro finance institution has to be registered with the Reserve Bank with the minimum net owned fund of Rs 5 lakh. Besides, a Micro Finance Development Council will be set up to advise the government on formulation of policies, schemes and other measures required in the interest of orderly growth and development of the sector and micro finance institutions, to promote financial inclusion. The council will comprise of members not below the rank of Executive Director from NABARD, National Housing Bank, RBI and SIDBI. Besides, Joint Secretaries from Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Rural Development will also be members. It also proposes that any micro finance institution which is not a company registered under the Companies Act, 1956 and which becomes systemically important micro finance institution shall convert its institution into a company registered under the Companies Act, 1956 with or without a licence under section 25 of the Companies Act, 1956. The RBI may pass an order directing micro finance institution to cease and desist from continuing the micro finance activities if it is found acting in manner prejudicial to the interest of its clients or depositors.
Free Press Journal  

Loan 'mela' to be held

PATNA: The Bihar Awami Co-operative Bank Limited would be organizing a loan disbursement `mela' here at its Raja Bazar Branch near Shiv Mandir at Khajepura on July 7. Bank GM Tanweer Ahmad said that the loan would be granted under financial inclusion programme with women members of downtrodden class being given Rs 15,000 each at 15 per cent annual interest at no collateral security to make them self-dependent and develop leadership quality in them. The Deputy General Manager, RBI, Patna, will give away the loan amount to the beneficiaries. 

TOI

Forecasting GDP numbers "very dicey", says Basu


With an adverse global scenario looming over the Indian economy,  projecting GDP numbers for  the current would be "very dicey", Chief Economic Adviser in the Finance Ministry Kaushik Basu said today. Basu said that while his team of researchers was yet to revalue the growth prospects, "some scenario from the global projections is what makes it very dicey." The government had pegged GDP growth around nine per cent in the Budget for 2011-12. However, the Reserve Bank later lowered the growth projections to 8 per cent, lower than the 8.5 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal in the midst of high inflation. Its priority is to tame inflation even if the growth has to be sacrificed. Basu said, "I have been doing some exercise... My group of researchers are taking stock of what could be legitimate forecast." The hard interest rate regime of RBI had seen the industrial production growing by 6.3 per cent in April 2011 compared to an over 16 per cent growth in the year-ago period, prompting analysts to say that probably economy is slowing down. Earlier this week Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that the government has yet not taken any decision on revising the economic growth projections for 2011-12. Continuing debt woes in Europe and spiralling inflation in many developing markets, including China, are posing a serious threat to the global economic recovery. Against the backdrop of unrest in the Middle East, the prices of crude and commodities are also rising.