PUNE: Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said that the drivers of food inflation has changed from the pair of sugar and cereals during the last four decades of the previous century to proteins and fruits and vegetables during last four years. He also asserted that the situation of persistent high food inflation warrants monetary policy responses to keep the overall inflation in check. Mr Gokarn was delivering the Kale Memorial lecture at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics (GIPE) today on 'Food Inflation: This Time It's Different.'' "The more worrying attribute of food inflation is persistence. In the four decades in 1960's, the drivers of food inflation were cereals and sugar with a supporting role being played by proteins and fruits and vegetables in the second half of the period,"said Mr Gokarn, adding, "While contribution from proteins has gone down somewhat in 2011-12, which is the basis of the declines we have seen in food inflation in the msot recent date releases, the pressure from fruits and vegetables have sustained." Mr Gokarn said on the demand side that people eat better as they get richer is a simple assertion. But on the supply side, we have problems. The productivity of pulses has oscillated around 600 kg/hectare for the last decade and a half. "There are several states, in which pulses may constitute an important part of the typical diet, whose productivity is significantly below the national average. If overall productivity is to be improved, a strategy which focuses on the specific bottlenecks in these states is probably the best way to go about it,"he said. Mr Gokarn pointed out the rising wages of agricultural labour and the stocks of agricultural commodities as two important factors exerting influence on their prices. "Wages rising faster than productivity can only result in rising prices, if producers cannot substitute other inputs for labour. There is important relationship between price dynamics and stocks. Periods in which stocks have been high, show relatively low rates of price increase," he said. Lastly, he pointed out the declining trend in the long period average (LPA) of monsoon rainfall. "This means that normal monsoons are delivering less water than in the past. He said that the implication of persistent supply pressures on the economy are not very good for maintaining balance between fast growth and low inflation. "While transitory episodes of food inflation do not warrant a monetary policy response, there are strong justifications for acting in the face of more persistent ones, if the objective is to keep overall inflation in check.
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