Thursday, April 11, 2013

The quest for an optimal central bank

A monetary policy committee that issues binding recommendations will erode RBI’s independence
.............In our quest for designing an optimal central bank, we, therefore, need to ask whether we would like RBI to be another division in the central government subject to all possible interventions, or we would like it to be closer to other constitutional bodies such as the Election Commission of India or the higher judiciary that tend to work under the guidelines of the Constitution and not necessarily those of an incumbent government. A possible solution is to design a framework in which RBI will work under explicitly-stated medium- to longer-term economic objectives that are amenable to changes by Parliament and not by the government of the day.


New banking licences may give rise to crony capitalism, say MPs

.........The members wanted to know how the RBI proposes to prevent diversion of funds by industrial houses owning banks to their own companies and prevent crony capitalism, citing example of coal and telecom sectors.  Some members cautioned the RBI against adopting auction route for grant of bank licences, arguing that it could encourage industrial houses with doubtful credentials to obtain licence.......

Licence to bank

............Given the state of financial inclusion in the country, there surely is more scope for newer entrants into banking; they should be given the opportunity as long as they satisfy entry criteria and the business is run on prudential norms. It is high time the RBI is allowed to complete the process of scrutinising applications and issue licences without further ado.

The Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission: Financial Liberalisation, Law and Market Architecture

......Still, the Commission’s report will not be without controversy.  Perhaps the most significant effect of the FSLRC’s recommendations, if implemented in toto, would be to limit the role of the central bank.  The RBI has been both lauded and pilloried for taking a cautious approach to financial liberalization.  The FSLRC would create a separate agency responsible for managing public debt, removing these functions from the RBI. The FSLRC would also hand control over critical policy matters such as the objectives of monetary policy and the administration of at least inbound capital flows to the political branch of Government, the Central Government.  Indian economic policy has been characterized by a high-pitched, if largely internal to the system, turf warfare between the Central Government, specifically the Ministry of Finance, and the RBI, over the pace of financial liberalization..............


Where do we go.. if failure to Reform the Regulators themselves.. ?


 Swedish Magnus Lind, an internationally reputed scholar & closely connected with me- in international fora-, is the Chair & Founder of the Global Treasury Peer Network as also the central banking policy expert. A great & credible commentator, who writes as under :
" Evidence worldwide shows that catastrophes like the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, the meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan, and the fatal grounding of the cruise ship Costa Concordia in Italy come not from a lack of laws and regulations, but from deliberate non-enforcement of the laws and regulations that already exist.  Parties that are deemed “too big to fail” (or “too big to jail”) feel free to continue with illegal practices up until the point that a disaster occurs.  The root cause the regulators’ nonfeasance is clearly “regulatory capture”: the regulators are protecting the industry instead of policing it.  The response to this by lawmakers has been not to fire or jail inefficient regulators, but to add new and more onerous regulations.
Other examples include the ECB being managed by governors having had the bank supervisory responsibilities in the home countries at time of the crisis and now they are supposed to become the bank supervisor of the whole of the EU. What ensures they will succeed this time? Yet another example is the constant meat scandals, beef lasagne contains horse meat instead. Why did all the food supervisors not discover it a long time ago? Since many more examples of meet fraud have surfaced. It’s quite clear that supervisors were sleeping on the post.

Does hiring more regulators and supervisors really add any value? How come they are not being scrutinized for their failures? Maybe it’s because they are civil servants and don’t have any personal responsibility? Political governance does not at all reach the same standards as corporate governance. Far from. Effectively any political administration can bankrupt any country and live happily ever after. There is no transparency where the tax payers’ money is spent. There is no percussion for financial crime in the political world. Genocide is the only thing an administration should avoid. That may lead to a conviction in The Hague. But impoverish a whole nation and putting the global financial system at risk is ok. The Basel framework encourages speculation in sovereign risk! We should acknowledge the largest financial crashes are caused by political failure. But, the Govts. & Regulators are keen to spread the notion that politics is low risk. "

Although my colleague, Magnus Lind has been forthright and highly critical of Law Enforcement agencies and Regulators of mainly G 7, the more Advanced Nations, I do believe  that the quality and role definitions as also the performances of Law Enforcement Agencies and Regulatory Bodies in all other geo-political jurisdictions, should not be measured with the same set of yardsticks and parameters but aligned suitably to meet with domestic ground realities. However, none of them can escape their mandated responsibilities.. !! 

In this context, we do come across in our country, Bharat, time and again in periodic succession disturbing instances of failure to detect, arrest or prevent some major scams- economic or pure financial crimes due to lack of oversight by the Govt machinery and or Regulators concerned. In majority of frauds and scams of mind-boggling proportions, they are assigned and labelled conveniently 'Systemic'. Frequent occurrences cannot go under the umbrage as purely systemic ones. Then, what name one would categorise & assign to rare earthquakes, flash floods, tsunamis, inter-galactical flares (solar ones are common & routine..!), 9/11, 26/11 terrorist attacks, etc. Super-systemic.. ? We will be fooling ourselves but end up in ceaseless miseries. We are already in. not out of such disaters.

TRAI failed .. 2G surfaced, Let us leave out the past ones like Harshad Mehtha centered scam. or many other similar ones. Recent cases of MF sector crisis, Drought relief and loan waiver scam, KYC related huge 'cash depositing’ scam are not to be swept under the carpet easily. Compliance and internal control failures were wide spread and not to be treated as a summer temporary skin eruption in a finger. Such trends have been rampant, given the nature of Indian polity, loose morals followed by a large segment of the society and tax evaders. I dont slap my criticism on just present day rulers or regulators. All those involved in the past two to three decades and all governing political parties in the Centre or in the States as also Regulatory failures have to be reckoned on this score. I agree that the Regulators in India, especially RBI, and to a lesser extent, SEBI or infant IRDA (who have little or insignificant presence) have acquitted themselves with great aplomb and accomplishments and especially in the recent past, despite the onslaught of global crisis. The crisis, which broke out in US financial sector, took multi-dimensions, has battered and ruined many other jurisdictions beyond repairs since 2007. In all fairness, G 7 nations are the cause for global ruins. Regulatory nexus or failures are empirically established and codified now. They are in the public domain.

RBI singularly has come in for unbiased praise and is 'talked about' or cited as the merited example. Globally, wherever I visited and participated in international conferences, and other meets or as part of business promotion or academic related visits, good words of praise coming from the region's highest quarters, were ringing as sweet melody to my ears as Ex-RBI man. But, I do hear not comforting feedback from the captains of industry & commerce or the unwary common public at large across the length and the breadth of this sprawling nation that, despite technological advances and modernisation of Indian banking, customer service is far from satisfactory in many respects. They  do say, RBI is sitting in the ivory tower and their supervisory oversight is 'Global' at just Macro levels and totally out-dated. They neither have the time, machinery or resources to look into nano events at retail ordinary customer points. RBI has steadily over the decades, withdrawn itself from micro inspections but graduated to Inspection more of very large branches and corporate Office. Ordinary common public have nothing to do with large branches and corporate office.

RBI inspection reports still seem to reflect the much abused phrase, " leave much scope for improvement", whatever worth it has, when taken to the Members of the Supervisory Board. Frankly speaking, the eyes and ears of RBI have to be sharply fine-tuned. CAMELS and GOATS are good carriage medium but modern 'Risky' environs under globalisation and the instant impacts of technologically & digitally connected coupling and decoupling of Markets beset with dangerous covert weaknesses, call for radical and more innovative departures.

Training of human resources 'leaves great scope for improvement'. Routine pep up inputs are just not enough to face massive tsunami like disasters. RBi needs to relook inwardly at the highest levels on its oversight functions. Regulations are not enough. Compliance and in right spirits in banks, are required to be dug out carefully with eagle’s eyes. One major area of concern, Corporate Governance, especially in private sector banks, which is highly opaque but critically talked about within well-informed circles, has not been seemingly 'adequately addressed'. Red signals are visible and aired in the public media and by whistle-blowers. External interference apart and the lacking sharp supervisory tools as also the right fearless attitudes to swift cheese from the chalk, appear to be the hurdles to detect 'conflict of interest and nexus' syndromes. The tip of the iceburg is visible but collapse may not be far off, if stringent steps in supervisory frameworks are not addressed with focus & attention required thereof.
Everyone knows the squares, angles, corners and invisible needles,.. !!

Camels & Goats are also fodders for gullible & crooks..
chameaux et les chèvres sont fourrage pour les crédules

I have activated the sirens.. Is any one in the right quarters listening..
May be, but the train has to be sighted.. Sometimes will..

With Love, only Love and Love ever

German ‘Prof.Subramanian, the Global Consultant’ Subbu

Retd. RBI Senior Executive - (+91 9845809857

FSLRC recommendations on RBI: Stop, look and proceed ! - M.G.Warrier

...............Perhaps, the purpose would be served better, if the RBI is allowed to function with its present mandates, a coordination committee sorts out issues among the remaining regulators and if the government’s aim is to reduce the number of regulators, merge with RBI, and the agencies outside RBI one by one, as work stabilizes. The twin goals of one Unified Financial Agency and managing the man-power-related issued mentioned here would be better achieved this way............

Banking sector challenged by ‘new abnormal’

.....Why, despite times being far worse than 2008-09, is the RBI least inclined to grant concessions on draconian measures such as restructuring guidelines, non-banking financial company (NBFC) capital requirements, securitization rules and the Basel III global banking norms requirements? The subtext, not explicitly articulated, is that it realizes that waiting for the cycle to turn will be futile, and the system better learn to strengthen itself regardless of prevailing circumstances................

RBI nod may be must for NBFCs takeover

The takeover of shell non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) will have to pass through a new and high obstacle as the Reserve Bank of India moves to implement a plan to empower itself to approve the acquisition and transfer of licence of such companies to new buyers. The plan follows allegations of misuse of licence by the acquirers and flipping of licences by many defunct NBFCs...........

FinMin sub-committee to discuss inflation-linked bond

...“The meeting will discuss, among other things, the inflation indexed bonds with a view to give investors option to hedge their investments against inflation,” a Finance Ministry official said. At the meeting of the FSDC sub-committee the views of other sector regulators would also be taken into account for formulating the inflation indexed bonds, which was proposed in 2013-14 Budget...........

Two con artists arrested

..........."The culprits convinced Sankaraiah to deposit Rs 42 lakhs and even executed a bond and issued post-dated cheques to the tune of Rs 3 crore. Once, they even took him to Delhi on the pretext of depositing the amount in RBI to get foreign funds,'' .................

Does your credit card have extra safety features?

........Banks should also move towards real-time fraud monitoring system at the earliest, the RBI circular said. Nayak says that Visa already has such a system in place, but that has not yet been used by many banks here. “This is a risk management facility that has real-time fraud monitoring. We have data of customers and their spending habits. With this we would be able to detect fraud.” It may work better if banks also implement the other safety features that RBI has mandated, such as dynamic PIN, having real-time fraud monitoring systems in place and allowing customers to block their cards via SMS.

It’s too soon to celebrate a ‘turnaround’ in the economy

...........It’s true, of course, in a broad sense that the economy is close to bottoming out, and the consensus view is that a mild recovery could take effect from the June quarter.  The RBI appears to be taking its foot off the brake pedal,  instilling hopes that the interest rate environment will turn a bit more benign. And with Finance Minister P Chidambaram’s smoke-and-mirrors budget momentarily lifting the cloud of a sovereign rating downgrade, portfolio inflows have kept pace in sufficient quantities to finance the extraordinarily high current account deficit. And, yet, the very real prospects of a misdiagnosis of the underlying ailment – and a blase complacence that is never far from the surface – put this economic recovery at risk..........

Read........

Dr.Tapan Kumar Pradhan - A relentless crusader

.........Dr Pradhan has been a relentless crusader for bringing transparency in public institutions. By the innovative use of the Right to Information he has exposed gross irregularities in public affairs. In 2009, he made a petition to the Central Information Commission of India to bring about transparency in the Performance Appraisal System in RBI.  Dr Pradhan was the first person in RBI and the second public sector employee overall in India to obtain his PAR report through RTI Act. Following his petition, Reserve Bank of India was forced to disclose the PAR reports to all employees.  In the words of Smt Usha Thorat, the ex-Deputy Governor of RBI, Dr Pradhan makes "creative use of the RTI Act to redress individual grievances". Dr Pradhan has also used the RTI Act to expose massive irregularities in the Indian RailwaysCentral Board of Direct TaxesAir India and the urban development authorities in Indian cities..................

Co-operative societies now come under RTI Act

....Cooperative societies normally include co-operative banks, credit societies, sugar factories, handloom-power loom factories, distilleries, milk producing societies, water supply societies and so on. Henceforth, all such institutions will have to appoint Public Information Officers, Appellate Authorities and comply with all the provisions of the RTI Act. This is the most revolutionary event in the history of our country in the recent past..........

Take note, ATMs that can spot a fake are now here

Automatic teller machines, or ATMs, that can tell fake from real are here. Manufactures such as NCR Corporation and Diebold Systems are helping banks roll out new machines that not only deposit and dispense cash but can also detect counterfeit notes. State Bank of India, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank have already started installing these ATMs, also known as cash recycling machines. At present, these are being used as cash-deposit machines in which a customer can drop loose cash.....

Talking ATM to open in Bhubaneswar today

........On Friday, Sarkar along with RBI's Deputy Governor H R Khan is scheduled to inaugurate a regional office of the bank in Sambalpur. "After the inauguration, Sarkar will join Khan in a meeting of local bank heads and customers on Electronic Banking Awareness Training Programme,"......

RBI may extend licence period of firms authorised to operate ATMs

.....“We had called the operators to discuss their issues. The RBI may look into their demands for increasing the tenure of their licence,” the RBI official said on the condition of anonymity. Many company representatives have been requesting the RBI to extend the validity of the licences, two sources who were present at the meeting told Business Line. Under the RBI guidelines, the authorisation for setting up a WLA operation would be initially valid for a period of one year.......

FDI, FII rules are fine, but not enforcement

....However, a perusal of the IMF Balance of Payment Manual Version 6 and the RBI’s Balance of Payment Manual 2010 reveals that India adheres to the international best practice while defining both FDI and FII. As the RBI Manual itself points out, “With regard to FDI, while as per the international definition, for an investment to qualify as FDI the foreign investor needs to have a 10 per cent or higher stake in a given company, in India this has not been strictly adhered to.”.....

Nearing a Minsky moment

........Late last year, the Reserve Bank of India Governor gave a speech on the topic of G-20 and India. He argued that “the post-crisis debate on global imbalances has three interrelated facets. The first is the role of exchange rates in global rebalancing... Global rebalancing will require deficit economies to save more and consume less. They (deficit economies) need to depend for growth more on external demand which calls for a real depreciation of their currencies…” He then went on to argue that “export competitiveness…should come from improved productivity rather than an artificially calibrated exchange rate”. Howsoever laudable the objective, the fact is that ............

How India can get onto a 12% sustainable growth trajectory

.....A tiny fraction of this capital found its way into India and created a record setting growth of 9% for four years! This could have easily been 12% or more (as in China) but the Reserve Bank of India chose to curtail growth by raising interest rates to control food prices (a completely uncorrelated event) and thereby destroyed the prevailing positive Capital Asset Pricing Model, creating the current crises........

India sceptics are wrong, growth can return soon

...........This is why I have always argued that India's current woes do not reflect its long-term growth prospects. Instead, they are to be attributed to two short term factors: monetary squeeze by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and a virtual blockade of economic activity through wholesale denials of or indefinite delays in government clearances............

‘The economy has begun to turn around’

.....It is food inflation that has not come down. A lot of people say that food inflation is not something that can be tackled by keeping tight monetary policy. My own judgment is that the economy has begun to turn around and we have unutilised growth capacity. The RBI’s earlier view was that if you don’t have fiscal space please don’t rely on monetary policy. Now the dispute is only speed and pace. Some people think there should be more monetary loosening, while others think it should be a more careful process. In my view it’s not the monetary side that is the most crucial........

SEBI has gone beyond SC order, says Sahara Boss Roy

...............Playing a victim, Subrata Roy minced no words in criticizing the market regulator in an exclusive interview to CNBC-TV18 where he claimed that SEBI was making up stories without checking facts. He even went on to say that SEBI had gone beyond Supreme Court's order and was breaking all rules and law.............

Amanath Bank promises restoring transactions, but critics cry foul

... "The board of management has submitted a memorandum to the registrar of Co-operative Societies requesting him to impress upon the RBI in lifting its ban. The registrar have acknowledged the concern of the bank and has also recommended RBI to lift its directions,"...............