Mumbai : Reserve Bank Deputy Governor HR Khan on Monday said fiscal deficit target of 4.6 per cent of GDP could be breached in 2011-12, raising implications for domestic inflation. “The moderation in private demand resulting from anti-inflationary monetary policy stance of the RBI will be partly offset by the expansion in public sector demand in terms of the size of the fiscal deficit,” Khan said while addressing the National Management Seminar. While shrinking value of money on account of high price rise called for a tight monetary policy, there is also a need to maintain a balance between controlling inflation and boosting growth, he said. “Shrinking value of money because of persistent high inflation explains the importance of anti-inflationary monetary policy. For a country with large percentage of population still living below the poverty line, inflation works as a regressive tax,” Khan said. “Economic welfare of the population at large could be enhanced primarily through higher growth, that too in a low and stable inflation environment. That suggests why balancing growth and inflation becomes so important to monetary policy.” Khan said the Indian rupee has depreciated by about 15 per cent against the US dollar since July 2011, and this has more than offset the beneficial impact of modest softening of global commodity prices on domestic inflation. “Thus exchange rate depreciation has emerged as a new shock,” he said. According to Khan, it is a much more complex task than what may appear in any public discussions. To ensure that the grease effect of modest inflation allows economic growth and investment activities to materialise, inflation would have to be positive. A positive inflation within the threshold level would not mean erosion in purchasing power since higher growth would also raise the income levels, and as a result net purchasing power would increase. “Unless the benefits of growth get equitably distributed, this net increase in purchasing power may not happen to all. At the aggregate level, some positive inflation that coexists with high growth could be welfare maximising. At high inflation, particularly above threshold level, growth may however, moderate, and both inflation and low growth could erode welfare,” he said.
IE