Monetary tightening is having a limited impact on inflation, which is driven by the supply of money to rural areas through programmes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), Nirmal Jain, chairman of India Infoline, said in an interview. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) hiking of interest rates to curb inflation will hurt corporate earnings and the country’s economic growth, he said. Edited excerpts:
Two things seem to have put the brakes on the market: RBI’s 50 basis points (0.5 percentage point) interest rate hike, and the fact that the market was taken by surprise as it was expecting the tightening of monetary policy to have reached its peak...
I think they are quite surprising and to a large extent it disappointed the market. Because today’s inflation is, by RBI’s own admission, inflation because of wage price spiral and supply constraints and as all of us know that there is a (MG)NREGA scheme, which is putting in a lot of money and driving up the wages and we hear now that people are not finding workers for harvesting or even for construction activity because you get Rs.150 for doing nothing and now husband and wife both can enroll. So I think that is driving inflation and very little can be done by monetary policies and if you read between the lines, that is what even RBI is trying to indicate. So under this context people who have thought that there is always a compromise between growth and inflation, now inflation is something which will have little impact from monetary policy, then one would go easy on that. But I think RBI has taken an extreme view on inflation and they surprised the market. I think more importantly this will impact corporate earnings and also the growth over the next 12-18 months. I think more impact on macro variables like growth will be seen in FY13 (fiscal year 2013). Because investment cycle has slowed down considerably, at these interest rates people are not, most of the entrepreneurs are very reluctant to borrow and put up a new projects or expand capacities and that will impact employment as well as growth, but this always happens with some lag. Today, what is happening is we are in a very peculiar situation, that our GDP (gross domestic product) growth is sustained by our consumption demand, which again is given by lot of money getting into the rural sector by way of government schemes as well as increased flow of bank credit. But from a longer term point of view, a growing economy like ours should focus on capex (capital expenditure), capital formation, creating productive capacity which will sustain employment and growth over a long term. But as RBI has always indicated that growth is also on their radar, so they will watch this for maybe a quarter or two. So one shouldn’t get too disappointed from a longer term perspective, I think, we should start easing of interest rate may be in six months’ time and that will put the growth back on track or expectations about growth also back on track.
Two months ago, you forecast that GDP growth will go down to 8%. Now, most experts are saying we will probably end closer to 7%. Is the situation worse than two months ago?
I think one has to watch out, but maybe the GDP forecast for FY13 will be a challenge and I think that can slow down to 6.5-7%. See what most experts are talking and worrying about is that the cause-effect relationship between monetary policy and inflation at this point of time is not so direct—primarily because supply constraints are driving food prices up and also commodity prices are beyond the control of monetary policies, and further we have inflation which is led by a lot of money being pumped into rural and other sectors by way of MGNREGA and other schemes... Of course it is a good objective to keep inflation under control, but when the cause-effect relationship is so weak, one should also look at the negative side of it. But I am again not very pessimistic from a medium to a long-term perspective... in terms of FII sentiments whatever they are looking for opportunities to invest in India and some sectors are impacted but not all the sectors by rate hike, so you have sectors like FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), pharma or select IT (information technology) stock, they will continue to do well and attract money in the market. As far as monetary policies are concerned, one has to wait for one more (in) September-October and see how RBI and government take view on this. But if it slightly continues then I think there will be a significant impact on the GDP growth also next year.
The global condition has worsened in the past two months, but in India, you saw the government waking up on many issues, including fuel price, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic reforms. How do you look at these two factors?
Actually government has moved ahead on the policy front and I think if this is supported by infrastructure spending also, then probably the sentiments will change significantly. Today, another key factor which is required from the government side is most of the road projects, power projects, many of them are stuck and some of them have financial closure and some of them are not able to do financial closure. We need to move ahead on that. And in that context Sebi (Securities and Exchange Board of India) has allowed NBFCs (non-banking financial companies) and mutual funds to raise infra fund. There’s a positive development, but government has to move and show some decisive steps that they want to attract capital and infrastructure projects—particularly power, road and others. I think that’s supportive to some of the policy moves that they have done in past couple of months. On whatever reforms that they have done, I think that will help sentiments become positive again.
You had earlier said you at worst see a 5-7% downside and you don’t see any trigger for an upside. Has that position changed?
I think it remains more or less same, I don’t think we have too many triggers for positive upside now and the market will try and consolidate and we continue to have 5-7% or maybe that 5,200 level, which you know market can test in case there is negative news either on global front or even internally on the political or economic front. Monsoon will be key to watch now, because it started very well but there is a bit of slowdown in the month of July. So that will be critical because food prices have been ruling high and if we have a good monsoon then at least there will be some relief on that front. So I think in terms of triggers for positive move, one is monsoon... second is government’s infra spending, i.e. spending that they need to do; the third will be the food prices come down... fourth, I would say is the global scenario, particularly the US, if it resolves very amicably then again, see there’s always a very interesting scenario because if there’s a negative sentiment in the Europe and the US but not a collapse, then we will see more money flowing into the emerging market because they continue to do monitory easing and they makes money easy to move into a riskier asset like emerging market and India gets more allocation from that. So I think we live in a very interesting environment globally as well as in India and there are many factors at play. It’s very difficult to forecast how things will move, but in totality I mean it looks like the sentiment will be neutral to a bit of negative bias for some time, till at least the scenario on monetary policy, interest rate and inflation becomes more positive.
Mint