Mumbai: A survey sponsored by the Reserve Bank does not see any dramatic fall in inflation during the course of the year, although it pegged the economic growth rate for 2011-12 at 8.2%, nearly the same as projected by the central bank. The Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators expects the year-end inflation to be in the range of 7 to 7.9%, which is much above the RBI's projection of 6% by March 2012. Forecasters were asked to assign probabilities to various macro-economic indicators linked to the Indian economy. "Forecasters have assigned the highest (30.2%) chance that it (wholesale price inflation) will fall in 7-7.9% in end-March of 2011-12," the survey said. The RBIs projection for WPI inflation for March 2012 was 6% with an upward bias, keeping in view the domestic demand-supply balance, the global trend in commodity prices, and the likely demand scenario. Headline inflation stood at 8.66% in April, on the back of moderation in the prices of certain food items, in line with the government's expectations. Inflation has been above 8 per cent since January 2010. The apex bank has already hiked policy rates nine times since March 2010 to tame demand and curb inflation. Besides, the survey pegged India's economic growth at 8.2% in the current fiscal."For 2011-12, forecasters have revised their real GDP (gross domestic product) forecast downwards to 8.2% from 8.5% as per the last survey", the survey said. The RBI in its annual credit policy review had projected economy to grow 8% in financial year 2011-12, as it is facing downside risks from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone nations and high oil prices.
FE
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