July policy a close call rate cuts to follow

........While the timing of further monetary easing remains uncertain, I expect cumulatively 150-basis points (bps) of rate cuts during 2012-13 (including 50 basis points delivered in April). RBI action next week remains a very close call; I maintain a bias for a 25-bp cut in the repo rate. Importantly, the government’s ability to marshal a fuel price rise in the near term remains a key event, as that would be seen as the first initiative (even if token) to tighten the fiscal belt.......

Read - BS