Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Economists welcome Subbarao's extension

Chennai, Aug 9 : The two-year extension given to RBI Governor, Dr Subbarao has been widely welcomed by economists.  Reacting to the announcement, Dr Ajit Ranade, Chief Economist, Aditya Birla Group, said, "It is good to know about Dr. Subbarao's extension. Recently three former RBI Governor's had made a public plea and recommendation for continuing him at the helm of RBI”.  He said that he was appointed in early September 2008, and was immediately "baptized by fire" caused by the Lehman bankruptcy and subsequent financial and economic crisis. I think India withstood that turmoil, not least because of RBI's proactive and also creative response to the global turbulence.  Given the current upheavals in global markets due to the downgrade of sovereign U.S. debt by S & P, it would need someone like Dr. Subbarao with a proven track record at the helm, to steer matters here. “Of course one could pick bones about the RBI not having done enough about inflation. But there I think the RBI has a legitimate alibi about having been undone by the fiscal situation. I welcome the extension given to Dr. Subbarao, he said"
Expertise
Ms Shubada Rao, Chief Economist, Yes Bank, said, "It is very important to have someone capable at the helm in these uncertain and volatile times. The continuity through this reappointment spells something positive for the economy. He has demonstrated his expertise and that is reflected in this extension of his tenure." Mr S L Bansal, Executive Director, United Bank of India on Tuesday said that Dr D Subbarao’s extension will ensure continuity. “Dr Subbarao’s extension is a welcome step as there will be no uncertainty now,” he said.
HBL

Central bank rerun

Subbarao became RBI governor just at the beginning of the global financial crisis and therefore faced immense challenges right from the beginning — he handled them well and put together a speedy and appropriate policy response. The earlier, relatively more conservative, regime might have perhaps had a greater resistance to the kind of quick and bold steps that Subbarao was able to make......

Read.............

Introspection time for RBI

The one area where RBI has failed to provide more meaningful insight is the exceptionally strong export data in recent months, despite weaker global environment. It has concluded that these signal still-strong activity in the export sector.....

Ten heads 5 years in office

Banking access to rural poor


One of the more impressive aspects of India's growth story relates to the expansion of the banking infrastructure. Between 1969 and now, the banking network has grown ten-fold — from 8,000 branches to 80,000. The number of rural branches has increased phenomenally, from 1,443 to 32,000. This expansion was triggered by nationalisation, first in 1969 and again in 1980. However, it is a sad reality that, for all the impressive growth, nearly 40 per cent of the households in the country — many of them rural — do not have a bank account. This ‘exclusion' of a vast segment of the population — comprising mostly marginal farmers, agricultural workers, and casual labourers — is perceived as an impediment to ‘inclusive growth.' “Financial apartheid” is how Muhammad Yunus, reputed founder of Bangladesh's Grameen Bank movement, called this exclusion of the poor from the banking network. The term ‘financial inclusion', therefore, means delivering banking services such as savings, credit and insurance facilities to the left-out social strata.

Strategy

This book, by a senior RBI official, looks at the problem in the overall context of the country's economic policy and examines the strategies adopted over decades to tackle it. To start with, Joshi dwells at length on poverty and development theories and the need for providing access to financial services to the low income groups, and goes on to discuss the RBI's post-nationalisation initiatives to extend the banking network in the rural areas.  The central bank placed the commercial banks under regulatory obligation to open rural branches and to sponsor the Regional Rural Banks. Every bank was required to advance 40 per cent of its lending portfolio to certain specified sectors categorised as “priority sectors”; they included agriculture, lending to which must constitute at least 18 per cent. This stipulation enabled farmers to borrow for buying inputs. The RBI's “service area approach” by which the responsibility of meeting the rural credit needs of a specific area was assigned to a particular branch, and the provision of refinance facility by NABARD were among the other significant steps.

Low savings

The Central Government's Integrated Rural Development Programme (IRDP) and Swarna Jayanthi Swarozgar Yojana (SJSY), launched as part of the poverty alleviation endeavour, also brought about considerable attitudinal change among bankers towards lending to low-income households, although these subsidy-linked schemes met with only a partial success. What stood in the way of the poorer sections accessing bank credit was that their level of savings was so low that they were unable to provide collateral security for their borrowings. This barrier was overcome by creating the institution called ‘Self-Help Group' (SHG), an innovation of the 1990s. The banks lent money to the SHG, which in turn gave loans to its members. The SHG idea caught up fast and gained wider acceptability from the banks quickly. The NGOs also played a part in giving a push to the SHG movement by acting as sponsors and inculcating the savings habit in the poor and thus making them more ‘credit worthy'. Remarkably, loans to the SHGs were repaid more promptly than those under the poverty alleviation programmes, although they carried higher interest rates and had no subsidy component.  The success of the SHG movement, particularly in south India, led to the emergence of a large number of microfinance institutions, promoted by NGOs as well as private entrepreneurs. That the proliferation had a negative fallout — what with some of the MFIs resorting to sharp practices that got the borrowers into a debt trap — and the Central Government has had to step in and come up with legislation to regulate the microfinance sector is another story; it's a development this book has not covered.

More imperative

The advent of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, under which wages payable to workers are routed through banks, has rendered ‘inclusive' banking all the more imperative. “No-frills” bank accounts without the requirement of a minimum balance and “Business Correspondents” for carrying out simple banking transactions in villages using ‘smart cards' are the two steps taken more recently towards financial inclusion. As it turns out, however, the thrust of the policy initiatives aimed at financial inclusion has been on the supply side. The demand side has not received adequate attention. For instance, the RBI's effort to spread financial literacy among the rural population and stimulate the demand for banking services is yet to gather momentum. Joshi has elaborately, and somewhat repetitively in patches, dealt with the various policies and programmes initiated for reaching the bank services to the rural parts, but has refrained from analysing them critically. Moreover, since the ‘last mile' is critical for financial inclusion, the value of the book would have been enhanced considerably, if the author had drawn material from field studies rather than rest content with summarising official reports.  
HBL 

RBI alters LAF timing to curb volatility in overnight rates

From August 16, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold reverse repo auctions between 4.30 and 5 pm on all working days, except Saturdays. The move will help curtail volatility in the overnight money market that emerged after the apex bank discontinued its second Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) in May. The timing for repo auctions remains the same. Presently, repo and reverse repo auctions under the LAF window are conducted between 9.30 am and 10.30 am. In accordance with recommendations made by the Deepak Mohanty panel on LAF operations, the repo and reverse repo window open only once in the day. Banks would then turn to the money market to deploy surplus funds or cover any borrowing needs, which used to result in unusual rise or fall in the rates in overnight call and the collateralised borrowing and lending obligations. “We had requested RBI to conduct LAF auctions in the evening instead of the morning, as banks would have better understanding of their cash position by then,” said a senior treasury official of a large public sector bank. The new timing will allow banks to park the excess funds, if any, with RBI at a reverse repo rate of seven per cent. Deploying excess funds in call would result in rates falling below the LAF corridor. The weighted average interbank call money rate is the operating target of RBI’s monetary policy. “Now the call rate will not trade above the repo rate in the morning and will not fall below the reverse repo rate in the evening,” said a bond dealer with a primary dealership. The repo rate is now eight per cent. Also, the timings for Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) will be changed to 4.30-5 pm from 3.30-4.30 pm presently. Banks can approach the MSF window after exhausting all other sources. According to RBI, banks can borrow up to one per cent of their net demand and time liabilities at a penal rate if the Statutory Liquidity Ratio falls below the mandated 24 per cent. The MSF rate is now nine per cent.
BS

Subbarao to review crop loan disbursement in Maharashtra

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D Subbarao has convened a meeting tomorrow with a bankers’ committee in Maharashtra to review the disbursement of crop loans by commercial banks, regional rural banks (RRBs) and cooperative banks in the state. For the first time, commercial banks have agreed to increase their share to 45 per cent from 30 per cent in disbursing the loan, while cooperative banks would reduce their share to 49 per cent from 70 per cent. A state government official, who will attend the meeting, told Business Standard on the condition of anonymity, “At a meeting on June 8 attended by Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan and RBI Deputy Governor K C Chakrabarty, the state-level banking committee had finalised a comprehensive plan for the disbursement of Rs 23,181 crore crop loan for the 2011-12 kharif season as compared to Rs 13,151 crore in 2010-11. It was also decided that the exposure of commercial banks would be increased from the current financial year reducing the share of cooperative banks in the state. Till the last financial year, the commercial banks disbursed a mere 30 per cent against 70 per cent at the all-India level, and therefore it was decided they would disburse 45 per cent of the total Rs 23,181 crore and six per cent by the RRBs.” The official said so far the cooperative banks had achieved 91 per cent of the disbursement target, despite constraints after the board of Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank was superseded. The commercial banks had achieved 43 per cent of the target, he added. “We are receiving reports from all districts where farmers are queuing up at the commercial banks for kharif crop loan. This is really a remarkable change,” the official noted. State Cooperation Minister Harshvardhan Patil said the state government was of the view that the share of commercial banks needed to grow further, especially when the government had proposed an annual disbursement of crop loan to the tune of Rs 40,000 crore from 2016.
BS

RBI signs MoU with Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank has entered into an agreement with the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority to promote greater co-operation and sharing of supervisory information between the two regulators. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the two sides in this regard on August 4, the RBI said in a statement. Commenting on the agreement, RBI Executive Director P Vijaya Bhaskar said that the apex bank is looking forward to enhanced cooperation and information sharing with the QFC Regulatory Authority. "India and Qatar are among the fastest growing economies in the world, and we are seeing greater economic ties and increased investment flows between both countries," "Our cooperation under the MoU will help to make certain that our organisations are appropriately positioned to ensure that financial institutions under our supervision are well regulated and supported," he said.
Zee News

Zero balance in a/c need not worry you anymore

BANGALORE: The high court on Tuesday observed that banks recovering penal charges from customers not maintaining minimum balance in their accounts might have to pay back the amount with penal interest once the RBI comes out with its decision. The court's observation came following a public interest litigation (PIL) filed by T S Muthukrishnan. The petitioner contended that in the name of non-maintenance of minimum balance, banks levy hefty penal charges. The petitioner said it is obvious that only the poor man, who struggles to make "both ends meet", doesn't maintain minimum balance. A division bench presided by Chief Justice J S Khehar, while disposing of the PIL, said: "The final determination will only emerge after objections from the stakeholders. It is apparent from the recommendations in the Damodaran Committee report that the final determination may relate to levy of penal charges. The issue has financial indications.  The banks concerned would be advised not to levy penal charges till Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lays down parameters."  The RBI counsel informed the court that objections have been invited from the customers and the banks concerned and a final decision will be taken after that.  The court observed that since the issue of maintaining minimum balance and penal charges also finds mention in the Damodaran Committee report, the RBI would take a decision. TOI

Vijaya Bank's ‘exporters meet' draws good response

Kochi, Aug. 9:  A number of exporters from different parts of the State have participated in the Exporters Meet organised by Vijaya Bank, which was presided over by Mr Upendra Kamath, Chairman and Managing Director of the bank. Speaking on the occasion, he said, that the meet was conducted with the active cooperation of RBI and Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.  He explained that the main aim of the meet was to provide a platform for exporters to interact directly with the bank and with the Regulator so that various problems faced by exporters, vis-à-vis their aspirations/ requirements, could be sorted out on the spot, for mutual benefit of all concerned.  The meet would provide valuable inputs to the bank for drawing up appropriate strategies for doubling its export credit as well as to increase its clientele base, he said adding, that the bank would be conducting such meets in various parts of the country regularly.  Mr C.V.George, General Manager, RBI, highlighted the unprecedented downgrading of the US economy for the first time, and opined that the same could have impact on export scenario.  He highlighted the various policy initiatives taken by the Regulator for the exporters, with special emphasis on timeliness and adequacy of loans and disposal norms to be followed by banks.  Mr P. Pratapachandran, President of the Chamber, touched upon various infrastructure facilities available, particularly on shipping facilities, which would go a long way in improving the export infrastructure of the State. Mr N. Devadas, General Manager, Credit, has spoken about the role of Kochi Region under export credit, and assured the exporters of full cooperation of the bank in meeting their credit requirements. Mr Harindranath Shetty, General Manager, Treasury Management, was also present. During the deliberations/ discussions with the exporters, General Managers and Assistant General Manager from Head Office, Bangalore, have clarified various issues raised by exporters and their problems were sorted out on the spot.  
HBL

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

RBI Governor coming to Nepal on Friday


HIMALAYAN NEWS SERVICE : KATHMANDU: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Dr D Subbarao is visiting Nepal on Friday in an invitation of central bank governor Dr Yubraj Khatiwada. "They will discuss issues of mutual interest and also issues relating to their part of the world and global issues," according to the RBI sources. During his two-day visit, Subbarao is speaking to bankers in Kathmandu on the first day. "This is basically a courtesy visit by RBI Governor on the invitation of our governor," informed spokesperson for Nepal Rasta Bank (NRB) Bhaskar Mani Gyanwali. "However, we can expect the governors to discuss the issues of common concern but there is no predetermined agenda for talks." However, the central bank can be expected to lobby for the permission to opening of branch of Nepali remittance companies in India to increase the flow of inflow of remittance from India. At present, RBI allows the remittance from India through its Indo-Nepal Remittance Facility that allows Nepali migrants to send up to 50,000 Indian Currency (IC) in a single transaction through its National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) member Indian commercial banks to Nepal SBI Bank's account that then routes the remittance to the receiver through its branches or a designated money transfers. Despite the existence of the formal remittance facility most of remittance is entering in Nepal through non-banking channels like hundis so that millions of rupees go undocumented. Since no Nepali remittance companies operate in India Nepali migrant workers are not aware about the money transfer facilities.  The another issue that might get discussed in the visit is the circulation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination Indian currency notes in Nepal. RBI does not accept these currencies from Nepal citing the rise of instances of counterfeit currencies from Nepal. The refusal of higher denomination has caused hassles for Indian tourists who carry cash while visiting Nepal. However, accepting the higher denomination currency from Nepal is not within the singular jurisdiction of Indian central bank as the decision has to be taken by the government. RBI is also apprehensive about accepting the higher denomination notes from Nepal due to risk of counterfeits in spite of the persuasion from the Nepal Rastra Bank. Subbarao took over as the 22nd governor of the Reserve Bank of India on September 5, 2008 for a three-year term. Prior to the appointment as RBI Governer, he was the finance secretary in the Ministry of Finance, Government of India.
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullNews.php?headline=RBI+governor+coming+to+Nepal+on+Friday&NewsID=298562

Keep an eye on SMS alerts

Chennai, Aug. 8 : The RBI's crackdown on fraud in Card Not Present (CNP) transactions ‘led to' an increase in the volume of CNP transactions, by giving remote users a greater sense of security, according to Mr. G. Padmanabhan, Executive Director, RBI. But, he feels, RBI's success on this front might have caused fraudsters to shift their focus to Card Present Transactions. In this connection Mr Padmanabhan cites the example of a scam in Hyderabad, where fraudsters posing as merchants offered mobile talk time worth Rs 250 against payment of Rs 50, on condition that only card payments would be accepted. The kiosk machine specially set up for this purpose was configured to prompt for PIN and print a charge slip indicating approval of the transaction by the bank. The Magnetic Stripe Card data and the PIN were captured from unsuspecting customers and later used to make counterfeit cards for withdrawal of cash. The same modus operandi was used at a petrol pump in Ranchi; only this time instead of mobile recharge vouchers, customers were offered car wash liquid and air freshener. The moral of the story is that it is safer to stick to the beaten track, that is, KYC-processed point of sale terminals; avoid shady nooks and corners.

RBI directive

More important, with effect from July 1, 2011, the RBI has instructed banks to send out SMS alerts for all card transactions, irrespective of the channel used; ATM, phone banking, Net banking, whatever. If an unauthorised transaction comes your way, sound the alarm. If you happen to be one of those who keeps the mobile switched off for extended periods of time, you can instead, ‘regularly at irregular intervals', check out the transactions which have taken place in your accounts. Not to look for transactions you have made, but to spot those you haven't. Of course, you still need to ensure that your bank has your mobile number on record, not someone else's. For it is to this number that it will send SMS alerts and one time passwords.
HBL

Past imperfect

Everyone has to deal with an uncertain future but for the Reserve Bank of India even the past is uncertain because data is revised after it is released, according to former governor Y V Reddy. The comment was significant because it comes just days after his successor and incumbent governor D Subbarao’s detailed speech on how revisions in data, like inflation and factory output, have made policy formulation difficult.
BS

Govt report says 4 in every 1,000 notes are fake

The report, which is not in the public domain, also points a finger at Pakistan, saying its government officials are directly involved in the process of making and distributing large numbers of fake notes
New Delhi/ Mumbai: Four in every 1,000 currency notes in circulation in India are fake, amounting to as much as Rs. 3,200 crore in 2010, a confidential government report has found in a first-ever attempt to estimate the quantum of counterfeit notes in the country.  The so-called white paper on the status of fake Indian currency notes, prepared jointly by the Intelligence Bureau, Research and Analysis Wing, Directorate of Revenue Intelligence and the Central Bureau of Investigation, says this seriously affects the “credibility of the rupee as legal tender”. Mint has reviewed a copy of the report that was submitted to the government in June. Fake currency is 0.0004-0.0012% of bank notes in circulation, it cites the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as saying, which is four in every one million, much lower than the white paper estimate.  
The central bank does not have an estimate of fake currency notes circulating in the country, an RBI spokesman said in an emailed response, adding that the banking regulator is not aware of the existence of any white paper on the subject. Indian bank notes are secure, RBI asserted.  The report, which is not in the public domain, also points a finger at Pakistan, saying its government officials are directly involved in the process of making and distributing large numbers of fake notes. The Pakistan high commission in New Delhi declined to comment on the matter. Fake notes that flowed into India in 2010 from abroad were “in the range of Rs. 1,500-1,700 crore”, the white paper said. Total counterfeit currency in circulation amounted to Rs. 3,200 crore in 2010, it added.  Experts said the amount of fake notes in circulation is a cause for concern.  “From a monetary policy perspective, if growth in fake currency becomes too rampant, then it reduces the control of monetary policy over inflation by making the monetary actions less effective,” said D.K. Joshi, principal economist at rating agency Crisil Ltd. “This can have a destabilizing impact on the overall economy.” The incidence of fake notes in various countries has typically been lower than what the white paper has found in India. In Australia, counterfeit notes detected were around seven pieces per million notes in circulation in 2008-09, and in Canada, it was 76 per million in 2008, according to RBI data. As for the euro, there was roughly about one counterfeit detected for every 14,600 bank notes in circulation in 2008.  “The importance of curbing fake currency is even more important in the current scenario, when RBI is fighting inflation and striving to curb growth in money supply,” said Saurabh Tripathi, a partner at Boston Consulting Group. India’s vulnerability to fake notes was highlighted in the 2011 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report prepared by the US state department. “India also faces an increasing inflow of high-quality counterfeit currency, which is produced primarily in Pakistan… (and) represents a threat to the Indian economy,” the report had said. The paper used for fake notes is made of 100% cotton rag and a security thread is inserted during the manufacturing process that replicates several other sophisticated features, making the currency nearly impossible to detect, the report said. “We are approaching international forums to make counterfeit notes equivalent to terror financing,” a government official in the cabinet secretariat said, requesting anonymity. “We have already approached FATF (Financial Action Task Force) and shared this report with the US and other countries that are helping us to fight acts of terrorism.” FATF is an international organization that combats money laundering and terrorist financing.
Mint

Fake currency trade is unabated in UP

The illegal trade of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICNs) continues unabated in Uttar Pradesh, especially in districts bordering the Himalayan kingdom of Nepal. Since 2008, over Rs 9.5 crore in illegal tender have been seized in the state and 595 first information reports (FIRs) registered in these cases, which include incidence of fake currency found in automated teller machines (ATMs) of different  banks.
BS

Finance ministry must be in the know of gold transactions, says CIC

Hearing an RTI appeal, chief information commission orders ministry to be the nodal body; Reserve Bank of India and finance ministry to submit affidavits in case of denial of any deals in the yellow metal.

At a time when popular and judicial pressure is building up on the government regarding investigation of scams and financial accountability, the babus have mastered the art of passing the buck and being elusive. The ministry of finance too, has been acting slippery in furnishing information to the public. However, RTI (Right to Information) activists have found a way to make the financial authorities accountable. While hearing an appeal by an RTI activist, the chief information commission (CIC) has ruled that the finance ministry must be the nodal body knowing the details of gold trade in India, and has asked the ministry and the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) to submit affidavits in case they deny the same.  "Commission holds that it is the Ministry of Finance who would be the nodal ministry in respect of the subject matter. Therefore, the ministry of finance, through its secretary is directed to submit (an) affidavit signed by an officer not lower in rank of deputy secretary to give (an) affidavit that information is not held by the ministry or any of its entities. Similarly CPIO, Reserve Bank of India is directed to give a similar affidavit to the commission", the commission ruled on 14th July. The affidavits have to be filed within two weeks of receipt of the judgement.  RTI applicant, Subhash Chandra Agrawal said, "I received the judgement yesterday, and I think it is the same with the ministry. I am expecting the information or the affidavits after fourteen days." Mr Agrawal had filed an RTI (Right to Information) application in May 2010 with the department of revenue, asking for details of gold sales and consumption happening in India, and estimates for unaccounted transactions. However, the CPIO of the department replied that such information is not held by them, following which Mr Agrawal filed the first appeal in September. Dissatisfied once again, Mr Agrawal went for a second appeal before the commission. "The RTI petition filed at the Department of Economic Affairs kept shunting between various public authorities including the RBI, Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), Department of Revenue and Directorate of Enforcement with everybody transferring the petition to each other under Section 6(3) of the RTI Act", said Mr Agrawal.  He said, "India being the largest purchaser of gold, sets the global trend. Unaccounted money is being largely invested in gold and silver. There is every possibility that money deposited in foreign banks now being transferred is responsible for sudden rise in prices of gold and silver."
Moneylife

Economists hopeful of pause in rate rise cycle in September

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to take a pause from raising rates in its next policy meet in September, as fears of a global economic slowdown and its cascading effects on the Indian economy intensified after Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded the long-term debt rating of the US last week. On Friday, after the US market hours, S&P reduced its long-term credit rating of the US from AAAto AA+, raising concerns of another economic slowdown. With domestic demand already expected to shrink because of sharp rise in interest rates in the last 12 months, economists said RBI was expected to wait for some time to take stock of the situation before increasing rates further. The mellowing of commodity prices, especially of crude oil, is also expected to provide RBI some breathing space in its battle against inflation. “I do not see any more policy rate hikes by RBI if the oil prices cool off and if there is a double-dip as predicted in the US,” A Prasanna, chief economist of ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, told Business Standard. Besides downgrading of the US’ rating, the persistence of debt crisis in the euro zone has also added to the uncertainties in global economies. “Though the developments in Europe and US increase risks for the economy, easing global commodity prices is big plus. RBI may get room to tweak its policy stance and could take a pause,” said Brinda Jagirdar, head of economic research and general manager of State Bank of India. RBI has increased the policy rates 11 times in the last 16 months to combat inflation, at the cost of growth moderation. In its latest policy review in July, the central bank raised key rates by as much as 50 basis points. RBI Governor D Subbarao has also reiterated that the central bank’s monetary tightening stance will continue till inflation stays high. According to economists, however, softening of global commodity prices will ease the pressure on domestic inflation. “Our policy call that RBI will increase the repo rate by a further 25-50 basis points by March 2012 could be put to test in the event that commodity prices globally come down sharply and risk aversion is significant,” said Indranil Pan, chief economist, Kotal Mahindra Bank. While YES Bank continues to keep its 25-basis point policy rate rise forecast in September, its chief economist, Shubhada Rao, said rate rise action would depend on economic indicators like gross domestic product, industrial output growth and global commodity prices. “Volatility in markets will not be an adequate measure for RBI to change its monetary stance,” she said.
BS

FM to meet regulators to evaluate impact

Centre may have limited options to tackle lower trade and investment inflows following US debt rating downgrade and euro zone crisis. But, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee will shortly meet financial markets regulators to “evaluate the impact of international challenges” and devise medium term strategy to protect “offensive and defensive” Indian interests in foreign assets. Revaluing foreign assets following dollar and gold appreciation, continuation in dollar denominated investments and stock-taking on proposed equity sale of PSU shares in a volatile market are some of the issues that may figure prominently at the meeting between markets regulators and finance minister. RBI Governor D Subbarao, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) Chairman UK Sinha and Insurance regulator Irda chairman J Harinarayan are part of this high-level coordination committee on financial markets. This committee is now part of financial stability and development council chaired by Mukherjee.
Financial Chronicle

US sneezes, India catches a cold

A research note on Asian markets from Royal Bank of Scotland reads: "In India, the RBI Deputy Governor (Subir) Gokarn said over the weekend that a fall in commodity prices is likely to impact the pace of rate hikes and that the central bank remains concerned about managing liquidity in the economy, signaling a possible pause in the next policy meeting in September." That's respite number one.......

US crisis may hit but also benefit India, says FICCI

New Delhi : India will be impacted in the short term because of the US sovereign debt crisis, but it will also benefit from the economic turmoil as softening crude prices will bring down inflation, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) not to hike rates, a leading industry lobby said Monday. 'One positive fallout of the rating downgrade, we feel, could be the Indian market perception that a possible decline in crude prices may signal a pause in RBI rate hikes, buoying investor sentiments,' the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) said in a statement. 'Additionally, the spreads between a US sovereign and Indian sovereign paper of comparable duration may decline, thus acting as an enabler to foreign institutional investors inflows into the country. This may have a sobering impact on the current account deficit, even though this may not be exactly desirable.'  Global stock markets continued to fall Monday after top credit rating agency Standard and Poor's downgraded the US sovereign debt rating last Friday and cautioned of a further downgrade if the fiscal position of the country did not improve. As far as the impact of the crisis on the Indian economy, FICCI said some short-term impact would be seen in terms of market uncertainties. 'An uncertain global environment could, however, depress India's exposure to global markets (exports of goods and services, more than a quarter of India's GDP) and knock off percentage points from India's GDP growth,' the industry lobby said while outlining some of the risks.
Yahoo News

RBI may intervene to stem rupee volatility

NEW DELHI: Reserve Bank of India Governor D Subbarao may have shied away from intervening in the forex market for a majority of his term but, if needed, the central bank is ready to step in to avoid any volatility in the domestic market following the developments in the US and Europe.  "In the immediate future, the Reserve Bank's priority is to ensure that adequate rupee and forex liquidity are maintained in domestic markets to prevent excessive volatility in interest rates and exchange rates," RBI said in a statement on Monday. The statement also sought to comfort the markets by saying that there was no strain on short-term interest rates and liquid reserves to meet the demand for forex even in stress scenarios.  Sources indicated that the decision to be on full alert for a possible intervention was taken on Friday in the wake of the global markets' collapse. The RBI confirmed this. But developments on Monday did not warrant any action as the rupee closed at 44.97 to a dollar, compared to Friday's close of 44.73. In intra-day trade, it had declined to a low of 45.07, Reuters data showed. But trends in the futures market indicate that the rupee will decline to 45.11, while those in the non-deliverable forwards market put the value of the rupee against dollar at 45.25. Though the depreciation may not appear weak, a sharp movement either ways is something that RBI always wants to avoid as it destabilizes business. Besides, a steep depreciation would also stoke further inflationary pressures as imports would get more expensive. RBI typically intervenes by buying or selling dollars through banks, something that it has avoided for over two years now. During the 2008 financial crisis, its intervention had resulted in sucking out rupees from the system as the central bank pumped in dollar, and put further pressure on the funds available in the system.  This time, however, liquidity is not so tight and an intervention, from trends available so far, is unlikely to put much pressure, sources said.  "In anticipation of financial market turbulence related to the US debt ceiling impasse, the Reserve Bank made an assessment of the ability of the forex reserve portfolio to meet potential forex requirements in the event of significant capital outflows. This exercise indicated that there were sufficient liquid reserves to meet the demand for forex even in stress scenarios," RBI said in its statement on Monday.  The idea was to calm market sentiments hit by the downgrade of US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+. "Developments relating to the US economy last week have significantly increased uncertainty about its prevailing condition... As Friday's market behaviour demonstrated, India is not insulated from such developments. It may, however, be noted that in the worst phase of the recent global financial crisis, the economy grew by 6.8%, suggesting high resilience emerging from domestic factors. While downside risks to growth may have increased in the wake of global developments, they are likely to have limited impact," it said.  At the same time, it said that RBI would take all possible measures to "respond quickly and appropriately to the evolving situation".
TOI

RBI: Will ensure liquidity

“There has been substantial global risk aversion after the US downgrade. RBI, in on Monday’s statement, said it would respond if global uncertainty worsens, which means RBI is willing to change its stance. Still, it is too early to take a big call....

Read.......... 

India is not insulated from global developments: RBI

...“As Friday's market behaviour demonstrated, India is not insulated from such developments. It may, however, be noted that in the worst phase of the recent global financial crisis, the economy grew by 6.8 per cent, suggesting high resilience emerging from domestic factors,” said the RBI.....

Continuously assessing impact of US crisis: RBI

"The RBI is closely monitoring all key indicators and will continuously assess the impact of global developments on rupee and forex liquidity and macro-economic stability. We will respond quickly and appropriately to the evolving situation," the central bank said.... 

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Forex Achievements has fabricated registration certificate to fool people warns RBI

The RBI has warned the public against placing money in any such company and advised investors to only deposit money in companies which are legally registered with the RBI and entitled to hold deposits. One should recheck on the RBI website for genuine certificates before falling into any attractive schemes, whose bitter truth is revealed in just a few months after its launch. Investors continue to learn their lessons the hard way!

Monday, August 8, 2011

Sholay and Subbarao


Ramesh Sippy’s Sholay has even influenced monetary policy making, it seems. Asked how the Reserve Bank of India decides between a 25- and 50-basis point rate increase, Governor D Subbarao joked that they toss a coin. Sometimes, it falls on the edge. And when that happens, he says, he asks Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee !
BS 

Short circuit

In setting up the secretariat of Financial Stability Development Council (FSDC) office, which will function from North Block, the government found itself short of qualified people to staff it. So it turned to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for manpower. Such staff would work in the Council but receive pay cheques from the central bank. RBI had vehemently opposed the creation of FSDC on the ground that it would impinge on its regulatory autonomy, but toed the government line later. This time, however, the central bank politely declined the proposal saying it, too, was short staffed.
BS

Shashi Rajagopalan: A fighter for 2nd freedom - Devaki Jain

Few Indians can claim to be worthy of being called freedom fighters for the second freedom that Gandhi extolled Indians to fight for. Shashi Rajagopalan, who passed away on Friday, was one such. It is to the RBI’s credit that it included her in the central board — she was one of the greatest proponents of self-reliant financial security for the underprivileged. Shashi was a brilliant champion of thrift societies, extended to cooperative societies, led and populated by women. She would not like to be known as having built them, as her key words were always that this was the genius of the women, she was only a hand-holder. The real self-reliant cooperative movement — different from those run by the government—was her passion. These, she and my late husband Lakshmi Jain would argue, are the brick for economic empowerment. Together, they fought against the retrograde cooperatives and legislations that would reduce a people-led selfstrengthening movement into a bureaucracy. They both, one could say, died fighting against the Bill that is now in Parliament, which again tries to snuff out these real cooperatives. Shashi wouldn’t have agreed, but what made her different was what makes for the difference between an activist and a leader — she was brilliant. With her intellect, she empowered the lives and livelihoods she was championing. She was told she had breast cancer, but typically she reasoned that she did not want to take on ‘western medical support’. She was trying out homoeopathy and managed to contain the disease. As it worsened, she decided that she would dry it out by eating less, eating what she needed for just living. And she won. She celebrated her 60th birthday with a good Iyengar feast 12 days ago.
(Devaki Jain is a Padma Bhushan-winning writer who has worked in the field of feminist economics. She is the wife of Gandhian economist late Sri Lakshmi Chand Jain)
TOI

RBI fines Gujarat Mercantile Coop bank with Rs 1 lakh

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed a monetary penalty of Rs 1 lakh on Ahmedabad-based Gujarat Mercantile Co-operative Bank Ltd for violation of RBI directives and persistence of irregularities pointed out in the previous RBI inspection report. In its statement issued on Friday, RBI informed that the cooperative bank is penalised for Rs 1 lakh for violation of RBI's directives or instructions relating to filing of suspicious transaction reports as required under Anti Money Laundering guidelines and persistence of irregularities pointed out in the previous inspection report by the RBI. It had issued a show cause notice to the bank in response to which the bank submitted a written reply. Based on the bank's reply th e RBI came to the conclusion that the violations were substantiated and warranted imposition of the penalty.
BS

Karnataka Bank Bags Award for Managing IT Risk


Mangalore, Aug 7: The city-based private sector bank - Karnataka Bank Limited has bagged the best bank award for ‘Managing IT Risk’ under small bank category for the year 2010-11, instituted by Institute for Development and Research in Banking Technology (IDRBT). Anand Sinha, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India and Chairman, IDRBT presented the award to P Jayarama Bhat, Managing Director at a function held in Hyderabad on August 4, 2011. This is for the second consecutive year that the Bank has won the award. The Bank had bagged ‘Special Award for use of IT for Internal effectiveness’ for the year 2009 instituted by IDRBT. The Bank which is tech savvy is the first private sector bank to have introduced core banking solution way back in 2000. The Bank which has adopted “Finacle” designed and developed by the IT major Infosys Technologies has networked all its existing 483 branches thereby ensuring Anywhere Anytime banking facility to its customers. The Bank has a wide range of technology backed services such as MoneyplantTM International Debit Card, Internet banking facility, e-shopping, online railway ticket booking, VISA bill payment, etc. Recently, the Bank launched Point of Sale (POS) terminal facility and also entered into a strategic tie up with M/s Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd. for providing Online Trading facility.  
http://www.daijiworld.com/news/news_disp.asp?n_id=111132

RBI meets to take stock, ensure order

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) brass met today to take stock of the global financial situation in the wake of the US credit rating downgrade and the possible implications for India. According to sources, the RBI will closely monitor global developments, and try to maintain orderly conditions in domestic financial markets. The central bank is expected to issue a statement before the markets open on Monday to ensure the participants avoid a knee-jerk reaction. It will also ensure that liquidity does not become a problem for Indian banks. Among the factors to be closely monitored were crude oil and commodity prices, economists said. A fall in these prices, which economists regard as highly probable, is likely to decide the central bank’s policy stance. It has already raised the policy rate 11 times in 16 months. “Only if the fall in commodity prices sustains may the central bank reassess its monetary policy stance,” said Samiran Chakraborty, regional head of research, Standard Chartered Bank. Expectations of a decline in US consumption and a weaker dollar have already put pressure on crude oil prices. From nearly $125 a barrel at the start of the Libyan crisis earlier this year, Brent crude has slipped 13 per cent. India imports over 80 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement. Economists have also said the RBI should wait and watch for a while before outlining its policy stance. “The move (the US downgrade) may rattle the markets globally and domestically after the opening on Monday but after the dust settles over the next few days, I do not see too much of a destabilising effect. So far as the RBI is concerned, I think they will like to be in wait and watch mode for some time. I do not see any big credit squeeze happening in the domestic market,” said Siddhartha Sanyal, chief economist, India, Barclays Capital.
BS

DO INDIAN BANKS EXIST FOR THEIR CUSTOMERS?

A little more than a year after it had set up a panel to look into customer service in banks, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released the report last week. It’s fairly well known that half of India’s population doesn’t have access to banking services, but what doesn’t get highlighted is the fact that even those who have access to banking services do not get a fair treatment.

The Past, the Future and the RBI - Yoginder K. Alagh

Former Governor of the RBI YV Reddy when asked why the RBI did not make policies based on the expected outcomes said that the future was difficult to anticipate and the past was known.Thank God we have a Central Bank, which keeps on talking Economics and Statistics. Governor Subbarao (please do the right thing by him, Mr.Prime Minister, wink, wink) apparently speaking on World Statistics Day said that ‘The Lakdawala Committee used the same measurement criteria for poverty decided in 1979 by the Task Force on projections of minimum needs and effective consumption demand.’ He then pointed out the fun and games everybody had with this. But little did the Governor know that the fact that the Task Force was not superseded by the Lakdawala Committee will haunt him, by that I mean Governor RBI and thereby hangs a tale. Therefore we are not talking of the past in the 80s but a page which is still there, quite like the grin of the cat in Alice in Wonderland. But as Wodehouse would say, first things first. What is called The Lakdawala Committee was not approved by Prof. D.T.Lakdawala. He was in fact quite peeved at the draft. I know it, because I was the Chairman of the Task Force, Governor Subbarao talked of and by 1986 was quite convinced it had outlived its usefulness and as Member Planning Commission set up the Lakdawala Committee in fact to redefine the poverty line the Task Force had developed. The members were only concerned about some statistical adjustments which gave results. Lakdawala who had a lot of common sense would not accept and wanted me, a research colleague at that time, to go and contradict and explain what the Committee should do. I was not biting since I had been dropped by the successor Planning Commission from the Lakdawala Committee, after Rajiv Gandhi, my boss lost the election and I resigned from the Planning Commission. But before the matter could be sorted out Prof Lakdawala passed away and the Report which carries his name doesn’t have his signature. How does all this affect the present. There is a common thread and that was Prof. Suresh Tendulkar. He was a member of the Alagh Task Force and the Lakdawala Committee and then, logically the Chairman of the Tendulkar Committee. When the Tendulkar Committee was set up I was happy. At last the Alagh Task Force which had served like the Hindustan Ambassador -- a yeoman’s role for decades would be changed, an outcome I had been advocating in print since 1985 and which I wrote again after the Tendulkar Committee was set up. But now Suresh would not bite. He finally kept the Alagh urban poverty line as the National poverty line and that is why you have the strange result that if you compare the old Official Poverty Line figures with the new ones from the Tendulkar Committee, the urban poverty proportions are the same, but the rural proportions go up. I kidded him the last time I met him saying that he did not junk the old poverty line because he was a member of its parent group. Those numbers are the control totals for the NREGA and are guidelines for the Food Security calculations even by the NAC. In a professional piece I argued with a bit of algebra that the Alagh Task Force went from calories to poverty and the Tendulkar Committee went from a poverty line to calories, but economic policy is not just an exercise in causal chain logic. Governor Subbarao will bear the consequences since he will have to steer economic policy particularly interest rates and so on arising as a consequence from all this. This page from history will it seems only be facing him, particularly since the Planning Commission which ruled the poverty roost with an iron hand for over thirty years seems to have hung up its gloves and the others don’t seem to care.
www.indianexpress.com/news/the-past-the-future-and-the-rbi/828387/

India fears bear-market phase ahead

Turmoil in the global financial markets could lead to a possible review of what Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Subir Gokarn called the “decisive change in stance” that characterized the last monetary policy announcement and a return to the old regime of the “calibrated” approach....

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Fiscal situation adding to inflationary pressure: Gokarn

Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn has said the Centre’s fiscal situation is far away from the ideal condition seen in 2007-08 and is making a “significant contribution to inflationary pressure.” Though the sharp reversal in fiscal condition was a result of the response to the global financial crisis of 2008-09, he said the ideal conditions of high growth and low inflation were present at a time of low fiscal deficit and should be the aim of the policy. “We are a welfare state at some level and it is almost mandatory for the government to spend to meet its social compact. But some of it is growth enhancing and some is not,” he said in a lecture at the Icfai Foundation for Higher Education here. “Fiscal policy should rebalance by emphasising more investment spending and less on consumption. As the government withdraws in terms of its contribution to the total demand, it will create space for more investment,” he said. According to him, the government should aim at zero deficit in consumption and allow any deficit to be present only in investment spending. Over the last one year, he said the drivers of inflation had changed from food in July 2010 to non-food components in November that year to manufactured goods in January 2011. According to Gokarn, the predictable pattern of high growth leading to high inflation was because of supply constraints in the economy. He said the trade-off between inflation management and lower growth applied only to the short-term. He said deregulation of diesel prices would have only an arithmetical impact on inflation. “From the point of view of overall efficiency of use of energy, prices of individual products should reflect their true cost. So even though there may be a short-term impact on inflation, as these higher prices get reflected in the index, over time it is the right thing.”
BS

'Inflation to get less emphasis in future'

Issues of ensuring financial stability and enlarged public debt would take centre stage in the fiscal and monetary policies of the country, while inflation is expected to get lesser emphasis, said former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Y Venugopal Reddy. He said there was limited evidence to directly correlate higher inflation with higher growth and vice-versa as there was lower inflation at five per cent while the gross domestic product growth rate stood at nine per cent when he was the RBI governor. “I had increased the interest rates and still the growth rate was higher,” he said while delivering the foundation lecture on ‘Future of Financial System: Emerging Issues’ at School of Management Studies of University of Hyderabad. He said the crisis in the global financial system was not over yet. On the possible structural shift in the system towards higher inflation in the economy, Reddy said he doesn’t have sufficient data to express his view, but it was expected to have lesser emphasis in overall scheme of enforcing financial stability among other things that enable growth. “We are in the times of heightened uncertainty and uncomfortable volatility,” he said reminding that the global regulatory coordination of financial system is only expected to come into play at the end of the current decade. Suggesting what the US economy was going through now was a continuation of 2008, he said the actions of the American policy makers only exacerbated the problems. “Offering bail outs to larger banks against the market discipline just because they were said to be too big to fail, had only resulted in making them even larger post reforms,” he said. However, he said, the situation in India was different as there exist no such large financial intermediaries and though 40 per cent of the forex reserves in the country are controlled by foreign banks their number is also large. No one was ready to take responsibility for the financial crisis that engulfed the whole US economy and further transformed into a global economic crisis and someone needs to pay the price at some point, he said. Though possible agreements on regulating the risk involved in the actions of financial intermediaries have been arrived at by governments, challenges still persist in implementing them owing to cross border operations being undertaken by these entities, according to him. “There is also an agreement that there should be a more formal mandate to specific public institutions to ensure systemic stability. Two major issues that remain unanswered related to the implications of cross border presence on systemic stability and the scope and limits for global coordination in this regard,” he said.
BS 

For India, the shock may come from commodities: YV Reddy, former RBI Governor

Financial wizards dubbed him 'conservative', 'anti-market', and the man who is 'stifling development' of the Indian financial sector. Few beyond the money market and currency dealers bothered about what he said. That was before the 2008 credit crisis. Now, the world turns to listen to him on what he has to say about the way central banks are run and governments manage finances. In an interview with ET before the Standard & Poor's downgrade of the US rating, former Reserve Bank of India governor Y Venugopal Reddy discussed the fragile global economy and vulnerable India. Excerpts:
Where are we headed now in terms of the debt crisis?
Let me put it this way. Before the crisis, the whole world was going in one direction of asset bubble, of easy monetary policy. So, at that point in time, India took a particular approach . It was active in the financial market and careful in its integration with the global markets. It was one strategy that worked. We had the highest growth rate, price stability and financial stability. I think, because we started with a balance and others had financial sector reforms, India could manage the crisis with less volatility. Even countries like Singapore came in a 'V' shape. It was not so deep for India. Now, the challenge is different. We don't know where the world is headed. At that point in time, we knew where the world is. But now, things are different. Countries are doing different things to correct the imbalance. There are divergent national policies to handle divergent problems linked to the unwinding of the imbalances. Therefore, you must have highly nimble strategies, which is a lot more complex.
What should be this nimble strategy?
First challenge for India is to start thinking in terms of a nimble strategy, not just cautious policy, to handle a divergent world. There is a divergence between the real sector and the financial sector; there is a divergence between policy and the markets. There is a peculiar divergence in the problem of the debt problem of the advanced markets, which we did not have earlier, and at the same time, we may have to chase global capital. It is an entirely different ballgame. I will not be surprised if there will be some protectionist measures because of the kind of domestic pressures in these economies.  First is to have a strategy, second is to be nimble. The next question is how are the other emerging markets going to do is an issue. Most other EMEs, particularly in Asia, are stronger than India. Then our fisc is weak. In the past 2-3 years, the quality of the fisc deteriorated. Other countries did a stimulus that could be withdrawn, we did a stimulus which is not easy to withdraw. They did the stimulus on the investment side, we had a stimulus on the consumption side. Compared to other EMEs, we are weaker on the fisc. We have to be watchful even in the external sector for two reasons. In this type of situation of commodity prices, especially food and energy, we are vulnerable on both sides (fiscal and external) more than other countries. Many other EMEs have an advantage in the commodities sector. We don't have that advantage. Therefore, the hit comes from the external sector. I am not talking about the normal external sector. I am talking about sources of shock and these would be essentially commodity prices - oil or food. In the current account, it will be commodity prices. We already have a current account deficit, unlike others. Whenever you have a current account surplus we have a headroom, when we have a current account deficit, we don't have that headroom. Then, you get into a situation of capital account shocks. When we take stock of external liabilities, and we are certain that portfolio flows are fairly high. Vis-a-vis emerging markets, India will have less maneuverability in managing its macro-economy because of the vulnerabilities. We did well in the past twenty years in spite of the vulnerabilities. You do well because you understand vulnerabilities. That' a challenge.

What are the policy options that India should weigh?
We can't pre-decide. We need unconventional measures. For example, financial instability was unconventional, when we started it and we can't go with a pre-disposition. The point is, first we need to establish the problems and see the various elements of the problem.
ET  

In the Aftermath of Monetary Tightening

When inflation continued to remain above the comfort level that is above the RBI’s projected levels, there was a strong case for a big- bang approach. A significant rise in the reserve ratio, for instance, conveys RBI’s message in clear and loud terms. Baby steps are of little avail under such circumstances. Empirical experience corroborates this, approach, as RBI’s policy action in the 1980s demonstrates. Such drastic steps have a demonstration effect in the sense that bankers are made to sit up and follow a more discriminatory policy of disbursing credit both quantitatively and qualitatively. One hopes that this adult step of RBI Governor would yield the desired results.....

Downgrade and rupee impact - A.Seshan

The RBI may continue with the policy of leaving the rupee alone. There could be capital inflows for taking advantage of the interest differential between the US and India.......

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Sunday, August 7, 2011

State Bank of India appoints directors


The Central Government, vide Gazette notification dated 03 August 2011, has nominated D K Mittal, Secretary, Department of Financial Services, Ministry of Finance, as a Director on the board of State Bank of India with immediate effect and until further orders, vice Shashi Kant Sharma. Further the Bank has informed that the Central Government, vide Gazette notification dated 04 August 2011, has also nominated Subir Vithal Gokran, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India, as a Director on the board of State Bank of India with immediate effect and until further orders, vice Shyamala Gopinath.

http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/State-Bank-of-India-appoints-directors/3866716623