Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Next, please?

........Rumours are also doing the rounds that financial services secretary Rajiv Takru might be moved into North Block as expenditure secretary and Das could go to the banking division in his place.

Finance Minister Sachin?

.......With Tendulkar’s retirement economics radiating promise, it’s time to ask the big question: should Sachin be made finance minister? Maybe after the next general elections, it won’t matter which front comes to power as long as Sachin leads finance ministry from the front. This seems to have attracted the attention of RBI’s Raghuram Rajan, a handy bowler in his college days, we are told. On account of the non-inflating macro models of Sachin’s retirement economics, Rajan may tell his former colleagues in finance ministry that they will never again walk alone.....

Tea Leaves

......Were RBI to read the tea leaves right, despite there being ‘upside risk’ to inflation rising, producers have virtually no pricing power—indeed, given the rupee stabilising, some part of the inflation potential has been taken care of. Indeed, with the median FY14 forecast of GDP growth being cut from 5.7% in the last survey to 4.8% now and from 6.5% to 5.8% for FY15, it is clear the economy needs a growth shot.........

Banks to recast crop loan in flood-hit areas

......Behera urged the commercial banks, regional rural banks and cooperative banks to restructure existing loans at affected areas as per Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) guidelines. Banks should also stress on sanctioning fresh loans for the affected farmers to help resume normal business, he added. Besides, he advised the banks to focus on crop finance for the Rabi season and meet the annual credit target for the agriculture and allied sectors in 2013-14...........

Four PSU banks face scrutiny for fall in agriculture credit

Four public sector banks may come under the finance ministry's scrutiny for reporting a fall in credit to agriculture, designated as a priority sector for lending by the Reserve Bank of India. .......

RBI shields bank-defaulters

.............Making names public will save private parties from giving loans to defaulters thus also resulting in checking large number court-cases filed for loan-recoveries by individuals and private parties. Central Information Commission (CIC) in larger public-interest should decide petition against RBI in this regard on propriety basis. 

Depositors’ body seeks inflation-linked saving scheme

.........“In substance, the depositors have experienced a negative rate of return (adjusted to the double digit annualised consumer price index-based inflation). This has not only eroded the value of depositors’ savings, but has also shaken their confidence in being able to earn a steady real interest income on their savings with banks.”.........

Walking a tightrope between depositors and deposits

Learning its lessons from the collapse of several collective investment schemes in recent times run by fly-by-night “companies,” the government has proposed stringent rules under the new Companies Act 2013 to protect depositors. Notified last week, these rules propose that companies (other than non-banking finance companies) should henceforth insure the deposits that they take from the public............

Political uncertainties impacting capital markets: RBI

 Political developments on account of the forthcoming elections, in addition to other domestic and global factors, are impacting the capital markets, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said today..........

An overdue warning

The Reserve Bank of India has done well to communicate a stern message. It has said in its new report on the economy that India could face what it calls “a lasting growth collapse” unless macroeconomic stability is secured...........

Liquidity key to restoring relevance of repo rate

....And, he showed intent — the central bank reduced the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate further in October (after cutting it in the September review) and opened another liquidity window. Now, it is widely expected RBI would restore the 100-basis-point corridor between the repo and the MSF rates in Tuesday’s second quarter review of monetary policy...........

RBI policy review: Inflation focus may herald rate hike

.....According to the RBI report, such high inflation “eroded real consumption, lowered savings, caused financial disintermediation, widened the current account gap and placed additional pressures for subsidized safety nets for the vulnerable population”. “Against this backdrop, monetary policy will have to tread a carefully charted course to support reasonable real interest rates and avert financial repression,” the RBI report said.....

RBI's long history as an inflation fighter: Raghuram Rajan likely to uphold tradition

........On the issue of coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, Rajan was a bit more circumspect. But he has an excellent precedent to help him along. It’s there in the RBI Annual Report, 1984-85 , under the signature of Manmohan Singh, “While careful supply management could help, aggregate demand is a critical factor in the short-run management of prices . In view of the direct bearing that fiscal deficit has on reserve money and on money supply, coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is imperative if money supply is to be kept within limits and price stability is ensured with a view to facilitating growth with equity.” ........

Read - ET

The potential for a surprise from RBI is high due to multiple policy levers: Nomura

...... If the RBI decides to make repo rate the operative rate immediately, then Nomura believes it would be accompanied by a 50bp repo rate hike. RBI has its monetry policy review meeting tomorrow  (29 October 2013). Nomura expects the RBI to downgrade its FY14 (year ending March 2014) GDP growth forecast to 5% year-on-year from 5.5% and raise its WPI inflation forecast to 6.5% by March 2014 from 5%..........

Rates obsession

......One-third of all NPAs of PSBs were contributed bythe top 30 NPA accounts in each bank. Deregulation of savings bank interest rates did not add to the interest income of real SB account holders. The net interest margins enjoyed by banks in India are among the highest in the world............

RBI Governor Rajan to set the stage for normal monetary policy operations

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan is widely expected to make a return to normal monetary policy operations on Tuesday when he announces the second-quarter policy review. Rajan, in his second policy review since taking over as the RBI chief, is likely to make the repo rate the effective policy rate that decides lending rates in the economy. Here's how he will likely do it...........

Prices of food products to increase further: RBI’s inflation survey

his was revealed in a survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India to gauge inflation expectations. The survey, among other things, is an important feedback that the RBI takes into account while framing its monetary policy. The RBI defines anchoring inflationary expectations as one of its key functions. Therefore, it can be interpreted that the expectations of people that prices will only go up might put the RBI ill at ease when it meets to decide the monetary policy today.......

Rajan prepares ground for rate hike on stubborn inflation

Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan has prepared the ground for increasing the repo rate– the second successive rate hike in two months – as inflation continues to remain above the central bank’s comfort level.  The central bank also sees modest improvement in growth in the second half of current financial year..........

Are consumption pattern change and vegetable inflation linked?

.....One theory that was put forward by senior officials at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was that the inflation problem has its roots in a sharp increase in demand for certain food items that people eat more frequently as incomes rise...........

‘NSEL crisis exposes regulatory gaps’

............The Union Government has taken several policy initiatives to plug regulatory deficiencies. It has transferred the administrative control of FMC to the Ministry of Finance and constituted two committees, one under RBI Deputy Governor K.C. Chakrabarty and the other under the Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Arvind Mayaram, to look into various aspects relating to this crisis. These committees have since submitted their reports to the Centre, the RBI said..........

Stringent gold import norms may be relaxed

.........“Some discussions are going on to relax the rule. The government is considering a proposal whether importers can be allowed to make the declaration less frequently, say on an annual basis,”.........

Your private data may be online, courtesy govt

To push the government's agenda of greater transparency and accountability, several states and central departments might be, unwittingly, following a bare-it-all approach in posting citizen data online. And, even sensitive and personal information, such as bank account numbers and income status, is not being spared........

Hacking attacks up, bounty for Indian IT companies

Technology companies are expecting a boom in anti-money laundering software sales as Indian financial services firms look to upgrade their technology systems in the wake of scandals and stricter policies from the Reserve Bank of India. Indian banks have been using anti-money laundering software but the last major implementations happened four or five years ago and those systems merely reported abnormal transactions. Banks now want to leverage modern tools such as using analysing real-time data to predict possible frauds or illegal............

Monday, October 28, 2013

Cooperatives, PO savings hold the key - DR. N. A. MUJUMDAR

........Those small borrowers who were thrown out of the formal financial sector, sought refuge in the arms of the moneylenders and have stayed there. All this went on, till say 2008, when financial inclusion became fashionable. There are limits to the PSBs’ ability to reach out. First, physical access and second resource constraint. The credit deposit ratio was 78 per cent in August 2013 and the incremental credit- deposit ratio 70 per cent. Thus the PSBs are already over- stretched. But the solution is not new, small private sector banks, which may take time to grow roots in the rural economy. The cooperative sector holds out great potential in this context. Look at the reach of cooperatives. Cooperatives account for a relatively small share in the bank– dominated Indian financial system. However, given their geographic and demographic outreach, they hold a key position in the financial system. Geographically, cooperatives have been instrumental in extending formal financial services to villages and small towns in India...........

Walk alone but don’t dance alone: Chidambaram to Subbarao

........But those who attended the function say that it was a farewell with a difference. Despite the strains in the relationship a lot of thinking went into selecting a coffee table book for Subbarao. A book on Indian dance styles was chosen given the penchant that the former Governor has for dance forms, especially the Brazilian style Salsa. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, the Chief Guest at the event, went a step ahead telling Subbarao that he might have wanted to walk alone as Governor but he never wants the Governor to dance alone...........

The Independent...............

At the launch function of his book, Barons of Banking: Glimpses of Indian Banking History, author Bakhtiar Dadabhoy delivered a short speech, apparently under instruction from his publishers. He said he was keeping the speech short to compensate for his “bulky tome”, and delivered the perfect punch line: “Even if you don’t plan to read it, buy it!”........
..........Y. V. Reddy, who was chief guest at the launch, took a crack at the debate about central bank independence. A former RBI governor himself, Reddy was often asked about this and this is how he responded: “The RBI is independent. The Governor is very independent. And I have taken the permission of the Finance Minister to say so.”

On Central Banking

......There was a belief or an unwritten law in the past that the central bankers should neither be seen nor heard in the public. It was the late H V R Iyengar, an exceptionally brilliant civil officer and the sixth governor of the RBI (4th Indian governor, 1957-62), who broke this convention and started periodically making public speeches expounding on central banking practices and policies to the benefit of laypersons. From then on it was a quantum jump to the days of Duvvuri Subbarao who effectively brought the concept of central banking to the doorsteps of even the villagers in India, apart from ...............

Vaastu differences

Why is it that every finance ministry official who moves to the Reserve Bank of India as governor turns against the finance minister who is the most responsible person for appointing him? Y V Reddy,D Subbarao and now Raghuram Rajan - all stop seeing merit in many of the things the finance ministry suggests. Subbarao, who had ........

ICAI to point out financial health of WB

.....Kishore Periyar, Deputy General Manager, DNBS, Reserve Bank of India, said, “Over the last two years RBI has undertaken grassroots level sensitization programme in the mother tongue where police officers, consumer welfare officers, district level officials of directorate of small savings are being educated on how the common people should be educated about investment. After all one rupee saved is one rupee earned.” Periyar went on to add that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Rural Planning Department has started a new programme called 'Raju and Money' which is run in all village gathering like fairs and weekly bazaar. "Besides this RBI is continuously in touch with Urban Bank Department and advise people not to invest in companies about which they don’t understand," he said.............

Bridge ideas & execution, says RBI deputy governor KC Chakrabarty

At a time when there is no dearth of innovative ideas, Deputy Governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) KC Chakrabarty emphasised that it was time to bridge the gap between innovative ideas and its effective implementation...........

Sequencing monetary policy moves

............The menu of monetary policy instruments is quite wide in the October meeting, keeping markets guessing about the details. However, more clarity on financial reforms and the new RBI Governor’s market-development agenda might overshadow the importance of the monetary policy actions

RBI’s just tinkering around

.....You cannot get a stronger repudiation of the extreme short-termism in market reactions to developments in the macro-economy than the former SBI Chairman’s statement. Indeed, if the latest WPI number had come in a shade lower, the “Street” would have sounded the all-clear for a reduction in the repo rate. Such is the fixation on the short-term. The policy recommendation is data release to data release. A perspective on how central bank interest rate moves impact banks’ deposit and lending rates is not obtained in the process; and, in turn, how they influence consumption, savings and investment behaviour in the economy over a period of time. With his hard-hitting comments, therefore, the ex-SBI Chairman may have done a signal service in highlighting the RBI’s challenges................

Radical change in policy approach

......Monetary policy is not just about financial market reactions; it is about fostering stability, something which all investors cherish. Reducing volatility in this environment requires sound macroeconomic fundamentals. Whatever the individual measures now, India’s financial sector will be transformed. This is important not just for meeting India’s voracious need for capital to finance growth, but also to move the country towards emerging as a major international financial centre to.........

RBI and the fight against inflation

.....One criticism of RBI’s monetary stance is that it can only control core inflation (as measured by WPI). That has remained below 3% for a while now and, hence; there is a case to loosen interest rates. Once again, this way of looking at inflation is illusory. Take a look at core inflation, but as measured by CPI, and you see a different picture: for the last four months, from June onwards, core CPI has been consistently above 8% and was the highest at 8.39% in September. One can quibble about what index RBI should track, WPI or CPI. But the fact remains that..........

Raghuram Rajan is likely to uphold tradition

.......So, if opinion is unanimous that the RBI will play with a straight bat - to use new governor Raghuram Rajan's fondness for cricketing analogies - tomorrow, the reasons are not far to seek. They are steeped in history. The RBI, despite its legal infirmities, is an inflation fighter. In all likelihood, therefore, the RBI will raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% and, possibly, cut the interest rate on its marginal standing facility at which banks borrow from the RBI by a like amount. .........

Food for monetary thought

A central bank's role doesn't stop with controlling inflation; it also extends to anchoring inflationary expectations. For the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the latter has been rendered especially difficult, thanks to soaring food prices, against which the standard monetary policy tools are largely ineffective..........

Infusing fresh thought into Monetary Policy



The author has captured the deficiencies in RBI’s monetary policy stance which has been obsessed with a lingering worry about taming inflation. When RBI’s rates announcements or guidance on the direction of interest rates do not influence prices or deposit rates which are the major concerns of common man, why not RBI listen more carefully what the political bosses and industrial houses say and act accordingly? 
The new Governor Dr Raghuram Rajan is infusing fresh thought into Monetary Policy. Let us hop his announcement on October 29  will factor in, among others, the following:
i) To the FM’s embarrassment, last week’s review revealed that one-third of all NPAs of PSBs were contributed by top 30 NPA accounts in each bank.
ii) While much ado is there about base rates, deregulation of savings bank interest rates did not add to the interest income of real SB account holders.
iii) The Net Interest Margins enjoyed by banks in India are among the highest in the world.
iv) The theory that ‘interest cost is not the major ingredient in project cost’ is interpreted to mean that small borrowers can afford to pay higher rates of interest.
v) Big depositors get preferential rates of interest and big borrowers get attractive terms for borrowing including special attention when their loans become NPAs.
vi) The impact of changes in base rates on interest rates(both deposit and credit) administered by banks during the last 3 years.
vii) The finance ministry’s linking of interest rates on festival season consumption loans to release of additional share capital to PSBs. 

M G Warrier, Mumbai 

Justice black and white

........ I salute Chief Justice N V Ramanna for his strictures against the Sanskriti School. He said, "What is the necessity for various state governments and ministries including the Defence Ministry and the Reserve Bank of India to fund the school run by officers' wives?" These 'wives' are all married to bureaucrats and the Chief Justice made it clear that he disapproved of them trying to 'create a separate island for children of these bureaucrats'.........

Finmin rushes with bank appointments

.......While it is unclear what has prompted the rush to conduct interviews, sources suggested that the ministry is keen to finalize the appointments before the next general elections. Bankers, however, fear that the exercise may go waste if the next government decides to review the decisions of UPA-II. The interviews are technically irrelevant as the Central Vigilance Commission has in the past frowned upon the idea of giving a blanket clearance several months in advance. But, that is not the only reason for controversy..........

Will India align with IFRS?

........A major issue for Indian regulators is the lack of IFRS knowledge and experience in the accounting and auditing profession here. There is a need to align the industry-specific accounting guidances issued by various regulators. For example, the Reserve Bank of India issues guidance for banking companies, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority issues guidance for insurance companies, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission issues guidance for electricity companies, SEBI issues guidance for listed companies, and the Ministry of Corporate Affairs too issues certain guidance.............

Fourteenth finance commission on Gujarat visit

......The Commission was set up by Government of India early in 2013 and is expected to submit its report by October, 2014. The period for which the Commission will recommend share of States in the Central taxes will be from 1.4.2015 to 31.03.2020. The Chairman of the Commission is Dr.Y.V. Reddy who was the Governor of Reserve Bank of India for five years till 2008. The other members of the Commission are ..........

The tortuous road to new bank licences

.........In any case, the process of awarding a new bank licence was never expected to be smooth. Among the several controversial issues, allowing large industrial houses to start a bank has been the most contentious. A very large number of respondents to RBI’s discussion paper were not in favour of awarding licences to big business houses. However, such policy issues have been decided. A few large industrial houses will be given permission to start banks. Amidst the riveting interest on the subject, two related developments merit attention..........

Takeover by foreign banks will be delayed

.............. "To allow takeovers by foreign banks means that a change in policy is needed, which can happen only if the Cabinet approves the increase in the cap in the banking sector,"..............

RBI queries applicants, regulators on new bank licences

.......As part of this process, RBI has asked many applicants to provide further details about their promoters, equity structure, financial inclusion programme, proposed banking model, among others, sources said. RBI is also seeking details from other regulators, including capital markets watchdog Sebi and insurance regulator IRDA, about the businesses of the applicant entities under their respective jurisdictions, they added. With regard to some applicants, RBI has also sought to know details about source of funds and compliance to the structural norms proposed for new banking players............

How new banks can win biz

.........It is not merely the right kind of leadership but also the right size at the start which is critical to deliver optimal execution. Banks need to maintain a balance between creativity and control of risk. The ability to use information and not just technology effectively is an imperative. Banking is information business and as such good quality data is central to any business. Banks are still in love with their management information system, which is essentially backward looking. They can gain immensely by deploying predictive analysis and not just stick to descriptive analysis. Technology and information are two distinct disciplines. New aspects such as data mining can make a huge difference. No business model will succeed without customer focus..........

Banker’s Guide to Building a Robust Institution

......But leaders of new banks need to question what their strategy will be. Many believe that a mix of an underpenetrated banking system combined with an industry where 75% of the players are inefficient (PSU banks) makes the Indian banking industry an attractive investment opportunity. They are right. Can this really be their principal strategy? Do other leaders think they have the same self belief and crushing work ethics that the promoter of the bank they cite has? I doubt it...........

Taking Women on Board a Tough Act for Cos

...The rush is likely to intensify as companies have a limited pool to searchfrom,said SureshRaina,senior partner at Hunt Partners, an executivesearch andboard advisory firm. It doesn’t help that top women bankers such as Chanda Kochhar and Shikha Sharma can’t be tapped — Reserve Bank of India doesn’t allow bank CEOs to be on boards of other companies except by rare special permission. Of India’s top 100 listed companies, 34 don’t have any women directors, according to data........



Agricultural Education & Knowledge Management

......The opening essay argues how sustainable agriculture requires the utilisation of both the codified knowledge of the researchers and tacit knowledge of the farmers for its development and adoption. Organisers need to access and apply new knowledge keeping in view the rich practical experience of farmers. The chapter on Agricultural Education emphasizes that it should reflect a right mix of scientific technology and orientation with an international dimension. Academic institutions should include representatives of industry and other employers on visiting committees, on advisory boards and in strategic planning. An analysis of the various phases of agricultural development in India after 1947 has shown that the focus has altered from human resource management to technical management to extension management.........

Read - FPJ - Book review by P.P.Ramachandran

Fed, RBI to drive stocks this week

.......For the week ahead, two central banks will play a key role in deciding the direction of Indian marketsThe US Federal Reserve, in its two-day meeting ending Wednesday, will mull over the future of its massive bond purchase programme known as quantitative easing (QE)3. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will decide whether to increase its key policy rate..........

Capital infusion in PSBs rests on December review


Rajeev Takru, secretary in the Department of Financial Services, said banks weren’t finding it difficult in carrying out their lending operations. In December, the Centre would review the performance of public sector banks in lending to the retail segment — consumer, automobile and home loans — before deciding on infusing additional capital in these.............


UPA's infinite wisdom: Minister seeks 2 more digs, ‘airlift’ of 4,000 tonnes of gold

....In a letter dated October 18, the minister of state for agriculture wrote to Culture Minister Chandresh Kumari Katoch referring to "two more treasures which need to be acted upon without any time loss". He asked Katoch to "consider sending a joint team" with representatives of the Ministry of Finance, Reserve Bank of India, ASI and the Geological Survey of India...........

Saturday, October 26, 2013

How, and How Not, to Analyse Bank Financial Performance - V.K.Sharma

VK Sharma
........While on the how-and-how-not of bank financial performance analysis and evaluation, a tailpiece on banks' reporting of 'total business' will not be out of place and context. Typically, in India, it is routine for banks to report total business as the sum of deposits and loans to give analysts and investors a sense of growth in banks' business. But this is not only at variance with the international practice but also intellectually and conceptually flawed and vitiated for all ' business ' is about generating revenues and returns for shareholders and it is ' total assets' that precisely do that and it is tautological and axiomatic that there is no way revenue generating assets can exist and grow without corresponding expense contributing liabilities ! ..........

Rupee is stable when depreciates in orderly manner: KC Chakrabarty

......"When the rupee has to depreciate, it has to depreciate orderly. That is the meaning of stability. Stability does not mean that rupee will be at this particular level. What we are saying that if rupee has to depreciate or appreciate, it has to do so in an orderly manner, which is not happening right now. It goes to Rs 70 and then it comes to Rs 61," ..........

RBI’s Dy Gov points to agri models of Punjab, Gujarat to check food inflation

......"If we can bring the agricultural model of Punjab, Haryana in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which have fertile soil and figure out a way to organise people, then it can increase productivity... I am told that Gujarat has 10% growth rate in agriculture, then why can't Maharashtra achieve the same GDP in agriculture?" Chakrabarty said, while delivering the keynote address at the Knowledge Summit '2013', .............

Do data have a context? - T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan

...........This means that the regulatory, external, technological, environmental, social or the political environments, singly or together, do influence the nature of activities. So, it is necessary to be very careful about how policy uses data. If the context is not identical we can - and do - end up getting the wrong policies. But then, all past data have some regulatory, natural, external, technological, social or the political context. Indeed, in India the problem is not confined to the contextuality of the data, which is a universal problem. Here it is exacerbated by bad data as well............

Need to infuse professionalism



Issues raised in this and the previous article are very relevant in the present Indian context, not only for Reserve Bank of India, but across government, statutory bodies, public sector and private sector organisations or governance in general. Accountability is an important issue. Self-regulation and independence of organisations within the mandated role are also issues needing attention. As brought out here, appointments to board and downwards and tenure of appointment are important as also are the quality of people who take key positions, adequacy and transparency in compensation packages and so on. If we look back, we got the benefit of the services of Seshan, Vinod Rai, APJ Abdul Kalam, Bimal Jalan, Dr Manmohan Singh and now Dr Raghuram Rajan (the list is illustrative), by ‘accident’ rather than by appropriate succession plans or right exercise of choices. We should, at this stage, pool talent and make succession plan, an opportunity to infuse professionalism in managing organisations. Open debates like this initiated by Moneylife will expedite moving towards this objective. Refinements in legislation or issue of guidance by ministries should be to achieve well set out objectives and not to silence dissent. 

- M.G.Warrier

A very good move



This is a very good move and can be followed by Ombudsmen attached to all regional offices of RBI. I would be extremely happy, from the point of view of customers, if this is immediately implemented by the new incumbent in Chennai, Shri Chiranjivee, who has recently taken over. The office of the Ombudsman in Chennai came out in poor light recently in one case involving a small private sector bank with its headquarters in Kerala.

A.Chandramouliswaran

Assured deficit...............

My View on "Pension Deficit": 


The Central government employees who were in service as on December 31, 2003 have a Defined Benefit Pension Scheme. According to a 2008 estimate, the net present value of the pension liabilities of central government now being met on a Pay As You Go basis was Rs 3,35,628 crore(6th Pay Commission Report,2008). Considering this staggering liability which grows proportionately with rise in inflation rate and periodical revision in pay structure, Central Budget, 2003-04 contained a proposal to introduce the new restructured defined contribution pension system for new entrants to central government service. The New Pension Scheme (NPS) for new entrants to central government service from January 1, 2004, except to Armed Forces, in the first stage, replacing the existing system of defined benefit pension system was introduced through a notification dated December 22, 2003. Government and other organisations which have introduced NPS from various dates after 2003, have washed off their hands from the responsibility to give ‘assured’ returns on the investments made by employees. Please read my article on National Pension System published in The Global ANALYST, October 2013. 

- M.G.Warrier

Interest rates: the case for status quo

.....With the WPI and CPI inflation numbers coming in higher for September, there is a natural expectation that the central bank will increase rates on October 29. However, there are compelling reasons to believe that the RBI will adopt a neutral stance this time, given the singular conditions that we are witnessing.............

The RBI’s inflation obsession

......To justify the higher interest rates — knowing well that monetary policy was being ineffective in controlling inflation that is rooted in a poor supply response — the RBI mooted the expectations theory with a tinge of the counter-factual. The RBI felt that unless interest rates were kept high, food inflation would get generalised, as people would expect higher inflation. High rates are meant to convey that the RBI is serious about inflation. The counter factual to this was that, had interest rates not been kept at a high level, inflation would have been much higher. However, it is a different matter that inflationary expectations have remained at very high levels, despite the rate hikes................

Another subsidy

.....Of far more importance has been the innovative swap facility offered by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on non-resident deposits collected by banks. The Indian central bank said this week that $10 billion of deposits have already come in through this route. That is an impressive policy success........

RBI casts long shadow on proposed Micro Finance Bill

......Deposing before the Standing Committee of Finance here today, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and other central bank officials made it clear that the organizational set up of the central bank is not suited for regulating and supervising such entities. “Effective regulation of such entities would only be possible by authorities who have the necessary reach and wherewithal to cover remote areas. The regulation of such entities by the RBI or any central authority, which does not have a local presence, could prove to be both ineffective and expensive”, the RBI said........

Plastic money grew 2.1% in September

.........."During the first half of this financial year, jewellery, consumer goods and travel have not grown significantly. These are where credit card usage is high. Because of the depreciation of the rupee, many postponed or cancelled travel abroad. Also, the incremental spends on garments, mobile phones and other consumer goods have been low in the first six months. RBI came down heavily on jewellers. All these probably contributed to slow growth in the outstanding credit card book,"........

As banks step up vigil, tech-related frauds slide

Technology-related banking frauds in India have fallen in the last four years, thanks to banks stepping up checks on online transactions. Between fiscal 2009 and 2013, they spent Rs 350 crore on manpower and machinery, and this is paying off. According to the Reserve Bank of India, the number of frauds has been going down since 2009. In FY13, 8,765 tech-related frauds were reported, a 13 per cent drop over the previous fiscal.......

Distress signals in Indian economy

...According to KC Chakrabarty, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, there has been little headway in the implementation of infrastructure projects. "Out of 576 SEZs that have received formal approval, only 172 are operational. Against a target of awarding road projects aggregating 50,621 kms during 2008-13, only 10,690 kms have been awarded," he said at an infrastructure finance conclave in Agra on August 9. Many of the projects awarded are yet to see commencement of work due to problems in achieving financial closure, delays in land acquisition and obtaining environmental clearances. "Out of 16 ultra mega power projects (UMPPs) planned, contracts for only four were awarded. Of this only one has become operational and another is nearing completion and that too much beyond the scheduled dates," Chakrabarty added...............

Read - India Today...........

Fiscal 'con'solidation

India's finance minister may fall back on a tried-and-tested accounting gimmick to create the illusion he is hitting his fiscal targets. Though Palaniappan Chidambaram's ploy won't fool savvy investors, it is nonetheless politically convenient. It will shift the deficit burden by one year, by which time it may have become another government's headache............

Slipping on onion prices

.......High onion prices were a prime factor in pushing food inflation to 18.4 per cent in September, and going by current indications, the picture may not be very different when the October data come in. The Reserve Bank of India will be watching the trends closely. Given the inflation scenario, it is quite likely that the central bank will be forced to hike rates again, which is not good news for borrowers and the larger economy.

RBI appoints special auditor for First Leasing; firm's MD allowed to quit


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has appointed an auditor for a special audit of the book of accounts and transactions of First Leasing Company of India, from the year ended March 31, 2010. A C Muthiah, the chairman of First Leasing, also said its board of directors had accepted last week's resignation of Farouk Irani as managing director (MD), though this would not absolve him of accountability to the company, stakeholders and statutory authorites........


‘Slowdown hurts banking sector’

The asset quality of the banking sector is under stress mainly on account of subdued economy and negative sentiments of investors, according to P. Jayarama Bhat, Managing Director of Karnataka Bank Ltd. Addressing the regional heads’ conference of the bank in Mangalore on Friday, he said there was untapped potential in retail segment – especially in MSME (micro, small and medium enterprises), forex, agri and housing sectors. These sectors will drive growth in the ensuing quarters............

Pvt banks take upfront MTM hit

......This is despite the one-time option provided by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to amortise these over three to seven quarters. Banks and analysts said not doing so was in tune with prudent accounting practices. The losses ranged from Rs 18 crore to Rs 289 crore...........

FREEBIE FESTIVAL

.....The other reason behind the freebies is the RBI’s clamp-down on schemes such as the 20:80 payment scheme. Builders are working hard to find alternative ways to attract buyers. One of these is to monetise the waiting period. Chennai-based XS Real, for instance, is offering a ‘No pre-EMI until possession deal’. Vikas Ramanathan, Manager - Sales, explains, “We have had a lot of enquiries and closed six deals in one day. Since the RBI has abolished the 20:80 scheme, we are offering a No Pre-EMI scheme. Here, upon an upfront payment by the customer we offer cheque payments to him or her for the EMIs until the property is handed over.”.........



ICICI Bank: Strong loan growth aids profitability

.......Most private sector banks have dealt well with the problem of rising bad loans. ICICI Bank has also maintained its slippages within guided levels. A small negative has been the lower provisioning coverage and the marginal rise in restructured loans. While the RBI had allowed banks to apportion their mark-to-market losses on their bond portfolio over three quarters, most private sector banks have turned down the offer......

Banks jittery as telecom regulator gets tough on unregistered telemarketers

.......The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) is understood to have notified all service providers to disconnect the telecom lines of about half a dozen entities, mainly banks, as complaints pertaining to non-compliant telemarketing calls were being received from customers. According to TRAI guidelines, financial institutions (banks, insurers and non-banking finance companies), builders and other entities could face the prospect of disconnection of all their telecom resources if they are found to be engaged in telemarketing through unregistered telemarketers.............

Friday, October 25, 2013

The Five Pillars of Raghuram Rajan

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has big plans to reform India’s financial sector during his term as the central bank chief. His strategy takes a cue from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who this summer unveiled a plan for boosting Japan’s growth based on three elements, which Mr. Abe calls arrows. “They have three arrows, I have five pillars,” Mr. Rajan said at an event of The Institute of International Finance in Washington D.C. earlier this month. “Five pillars of reform over the next few years,” he said...........