.................The new government may well be wondering if luck will run in its favour as it tries to revive the animal spirits in an economy, which has been in stagflationary mode for over two years. The monsoon is playing hide-and-seek and the latest El Nino-related news is not good. Rainfall predictions were cut last week - the monsoon will be below normal, given a 70 per cent probability of El Nino patterns. A poor monsoon would lead to inflationary pressures on the food front. Since food has a huge weight (about 48 per cent) in the consumer price index (CPI), it would push retail inflation up. That would mean the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) refusing to cut policy rates...............
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